Stanwork

Disturbing long-term complications of Covid-19-Remote Work & Neurological Symptoms!

Anika H Ahmed MD — Thu, 19 Jan 2023 17:49:39 +0000

As we almost complete four years of Covid-19 restricted life, with many either following the remote work or hybrid model, one cannot help wondering what the long-term effects of the Coronavirus may be and how we shall continue to pay our dues to it. Research indicates that although the commute time has sharply declined in the majority but the screen time has greatly increased. This is showing new symptoms in many enrolled in observational studies. It is worrisome to see that many of the observed symptoms are similar to people recovering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Major symptoms being sleeplessness, headache, fatigue, dizziness, light headedness, blurring of vision, depression, anxiety and weakness.

Research continues on patients who did get positive with the Coronavirus, and they are being closely studied after they were marked as fully recovered on paper, meaning that they longer tested positive. A lot of people still continue to suffer even after their so-called recovery and observational studies of them show many people struggling with memory problems, mental fog, and mood changes. Scientists agree that one reason for these symptoms are long-term damage to the brain, both from the virus and the increased screen time with no defined working hours. People tend to spend more time on gadgets now that they either do not have a commute or less time on the road every week!

Currently studies are being carried out in various medical universities with a team of scientists taking a lead at the University of Virginia, California National Primate Research Center at UC Davis, and the NYU Grossman School of Medicine. A study led on hospitalized patients found that more than 13% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients have developed a new neurological disorder usually seen soon after being infected with the Coronavirus. When these patients were followed up six months later, it was observed that the group who survived were still showing cognitive problems and preferred remote work rather than in-person.

The main health risks to the brain are internal bleeding, blood clots, inflammation, oxygen deprivation and disruption of the blood-brain barrier. The changes seen in the brain are subtle but even minor affects on the brain could be a significant change in cognition. SARS-CoV-2 virus when observed in animals clearly shows infecting not just the animal’s lungs and body tissues but also infecting the brain, an organ that has yet not received much attention. The monkeys studied showed that neurons, the brain cells that make thinking possible are infected although not confirmed in human beings yet under observation, but many researchers have found evidence that the virus can infect human brain cells.

As seen in monkeys, it is believed that the virus appears to enter the brain through the nose. A potential route for the Coronavirus to makes its way to the brain is through a nerve located on top of the nose called the Olfactory bulb. The Olfactory Bulb provides a possible route for the Coronavirus to travel from the respiratory system to the brain. The Coronavirus appears to infect and destroy nerve cells in the Olfactory Bulb, which surely explains why many COVID-19 patients complain of loss of sense of smell!

In addition to this, the Coronavirus has also been observed to infect cells that line blood vessels, including those that go through the brain and hence lead to damage that can trigger blood clots or bleeding that can lead to life threatening strokes. It can also damage cells that protect the blood-brain barrier leading to disruption and allowing harmful substances including the Coronavirus to enter the brain. Furthermore, the Coronavirus can also damage a person’s lungs to the extent that their brain is no longer able to get sufficient oxygen. Sone scientists also believe COVID-19 may be causing brain injuries that may increase the risk of developing Alzheimer’s later in life.

This impact of the Coronavirus on the brain certainly makes its extremely important to treat every COVID-19 patient in the initial stages with the newly approved Pfizer anti-Covid-19, PAXLOVID and stop the disease evolving towards more advanced stages, that can cause neuronal damage that cannot be reversed. The bottom line of all ongoing and past research is that the best way to prevent COVID-related brain damage is to get promptly vaccinated, cut down on screen time and spend at least some time outdoors!

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Global Energy Emissions, Demand, Mix and Transition towards Sustainability

Haseeb Ahmed — Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:48:20 +0000

How do we appear positioned at present to meet emissions reduction targets established by the Paris Agreement? In context, considering energy, a main contributor to emissions, topics of relevance:

- - - - Current global demand for energy
        Projections for future demand
        Contours of an Energy transition
        Energy mix between fossil fuels and renewables
        View forward: uncertain business models, public sector support.

A concise rendering of current information regarding these topics, in the discussion below.

Global Warming Trajectories across Emissions Scenarios

The desired goal of limiting global warming to A 1.5°C increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels is fast receding as a possibility.

In a positive scenario, of adherence to NetZero commitments made in COP26 by 64 countries representing 89% of global emissions, additional commitments aspired to, and technology improvements expected per current trends, we will end up with a 1.7°C increase instead.

And the trajectory of renewable energy cost decline with current policies leads to a dismal 2.4°C future, well above the upper limit of 2.0°C in the Paris Agreement.

The Role of Energy in Global Emissions

The global energy system that drives our economies and maintains our standards of living is a key factor in all considerations of emissions reduction. A 1.5°C scenario may be possible still, with a greatly accelerated transformation of the Energy sector. From the current state of fossil fuels use, there will need to be greater efficiency and a move towards electrification and new fuels – faster and more extensively than predicated by the present commitments made by governments and corporations.

Demand for Energy

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes in 2021 increased by 6% over 2020, in a very close correlation with the economic output (GDP) increase of 5.9%, to an all-time high of 36.3 gigatonnes (Gt).

A tonne is a metric ton, 1000 kilograms (kgs) or 2,205 pounds (lbs). A ‘ton’ can be short (907.2 kgs, equaling 2,000 lbs.), or long (1,016.05 kgs, equaling 2,240 lbs.)

A gigatonne is a billion tonnes. That’s 2.2 trillion pounds. For context: NASA informs us this is the weight of 10,000 fully-loaded U.S. aircraft carriers; the Washington Post tells us this is well over what 100 million African elephants would weigh.

Electricity and heat production accounted for 46% of the increase, with coal, at an all-time high of 15.3 Gt, constituting over 40% of the CO2 emissions growth.

The global increase in electricity and heat sector emissions can almost all be attributed to China, the only major economy experiencing growth in both 2020 and 2021. Electricity demand in China still increased by 10% in 2021 over 2020, outpacing the commensurate economic growth of 8.4%. Just this year-on-year increase was equivalent to the total demand for the entire African continent.

Record high prices for natural gas along with lower operating costs for coal plants across the US and much of Europe also brought about a greater reliance on coal for power generation in 2021.

Energy consumption variations

There is wide variance in energy consumption between regions and countries. In 2020 Iceland came in at a per capita demand of around 167,000 kWhrs, the US at 74,000, albeit with a population 1,000 times larger.

The world average was around 20,000 kWhrs. China came in at 28,000, the EU at around 35,000.

The equivalent figure for Somalia, last derived in 2019, is 236 – no zeroes to go with that.

Emissions per capita

Converting CO2 emissions into a per capita basis for an equivalent comparison, China is registered at 8.4 tonnes, the US 14 tonnes, EU 6 tonnes. Somalia is at 0.04 tonnes.

Energy Transition

With national economic engines dependent mostly on fossil fuels, an energy transition (from fossil fuels to green) that supports development and growth imperatives is not yet convincingly feasible financially, though efficiencies and cost reductions are demonstrably taking effect and are expected to improve returns on investment in green energy over time. McKinsey expects that returns on decarbonization technologies and power could outpace the growth in investment by 2035.

The 20% contribution of electricity to the total energy mix now is projected to increase to 40% by 2050. Hydrogen is expected to develop as the new fuel.

The two factors of electrification and new fuels such as Hydrogen should cause a reduction of 40% in fossil fuel use by 2050, compared with 2020.

And for the production of the energy itself, carbon emissions per unit of energy – Carbon Intensity – have decreased, at a rate of 0.3% per year over the same period, indicating a shift towards green energy. Paris agreement imperatives for Carbon Intensity decrease, however, are rates of 3.5% per year in a 2°C scenario and 7.7% in a 1.5°C scenario.

Demand for energy will continue to increase but at a lower rate, despite an increase of 2 billion in the world population and rapid, exponential growth in the global economy by 2100.

Continuing reductions in the energy intensity of production and greater efficiency in industry, buildings and transport will be the offsetting factors.

Fossil Fuels in the Energy Mix

Abatement technologies such as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS, also abbreviated CCS) have not received the required priority and investment over past decades to have been developed to a point of feasibility at present.

Per the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), If investments in coal and other fossil infrastructure continue, energy systems will be locked-in to higher emissions, making it harder to limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. Many aspects of the energy system – physical infrastructure; institutions, laws, and regulations; and behavior – are resistant to change or take many years to change.’

Limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C will also cause stranded fossil-related assets, including fossil infrastructure and unburned fossil fuel resources. The economic impacts of stranded assets could amount to trillions of dollars.

Coal assets are most vulnerable over the coming decade; oil and gas assets are more vulnerable toward mid-century. Coal demand has already peaked, while oil demand will peak in the next two to five years. Gas demand is expected to continue through about 2035.

CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing potential stranded assets.

Fossil fuel emissions abatement

In all its scenarios that there will be residual emissions by 2050 that will require abatement either through chemical processes like CCUS or through ecological methods like reforestation and ecosystem restoration.

Chemical processes are prohibitively expensive currently (for a ton of Carbon, around $600), with no clear indication of their commercial feasibility under present conditions despite hope for exponential advancement. Ecological solutions appear low-hanging fruit but pose their own challenges, such as reduction of agricultural land and the need for maintenance of trees, which can themselves become the source of carbon emissions in the case of forest fires in conditions of extreme drought.

Quick View Forward: Business Models in a Decarbonized Economy

There will be uncertainty across economic sectors. Besides massive investment and public demand side management through catalyzation and incentives, respectively, governments will have to join business and society for the use of policy to affect adjustments in market design.

© Haseeb Ahmed, The Stanwork Group

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Momentous SEC Climate Reporting Rules proposed: to take effect beginning with Filings in 2024

Haseeb Ahmed — Thu, 05 May 2022 20:08:10 +0000

On March 21 this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed rule changes requiring registrants to include material climate-related disclosures in their registration documents and periodic filings. The comment period for the proposed rules ends May 20, 2022, after which it will likely take the rest of the year before the SEC finalizes the rules. If finalized by Dec 31, 2022, the rules are expected to apply to filings for FY 2023 beginning in 2024 according to a schedule determined by the registrant’s category.

The rules apply to all SEC registrants except registered investment companies, asset-based issuers and Canadian issuers filing under the Multi-Jurisdictional Disclosure System (MJDS).

This will have a profound impact on large emitters, as oil and gas, energy, industrial, construction, transportation and even agriculture may be categorized; it may be noted that these presently constitute the heart of global economic growth engines.

Context and Background:

The disclosures are intended to allow investors to make informed decisions regarding investment in companies with an account of their climate risk, the material business impact therein, and their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Following the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s regulation of emissions under the Clean Air Act in 2009, the SEC had issued guidance in 2010 requiring large emitters (25,000 tons or more) of GHG emissions to collect and report data regarding their emissions annually. The proposed rules in 2022 raise the requirements several notches up from previous guidance to detailed mandatory requirements broadening the scope of reporting.

Broad Disclosure Requirements:

Registrants would provide detailed information about their management of climate change issues, including climate-related governance, strategy, risk management and metrics, and goals. These respective areas conform to the familiar four pillars outlined by the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) convened by the Financial Stability Board, upon which, along with measurement and reporting of GHG emissions in accordance with the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, the proposed requirements are mostly based.

Whereas TCFD addresses climate-related opportunities also, the SEC rules address climate risk only. Although its eleven recommended disclosure topics organized into the four reporting pillars present a voluntary framework, several international jurisdictions are codifying aspects of it.

Following GHG Protocol, emissions of seven gases covered by the Kyoto Agreement will be reported upon: Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, Nitrogen Trifluoride, and Sulphur Hexafluoride.

Paralleling International Sustainability Reporting Standards:

The European Union has maintained a more forward stance on sustainability and climate-related disclosures preceding the recent SEC rules proposal. In April 2021 the European Commission issued the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) introducing mandated EU sustainability standards, to be prepared by the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) and adopted through secondary legislation. The first set of standards is due for adoption by 31 October, 2022 for applicability in FY 2023; the second set of standards will apply in FY 2024.

The directive will apply to all listed companies, and to all large companies meeting at least 2 out of 3 criteria: 250 employees, and/or over €40M turnover, and/or over €20M in total assets.

The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation had announced at the COP26 in November 2021 the formation of the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), unifying and consolidating multiple reporting frameworks for global standardization of sustainability reporting. A working group of the ISSB floated draft reporting requirements compatible with the Paris Agreement on March 31, 2022, that international institutional investors will be seeking compliance with.

Among the countries incorporating TCFD recommendations into legislation or regulation are Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UK, discussed below.

Regulation Precedent Set by the UK

The proposed regulations are preceded in action by the United Kingdom, the first country in the G-20 following TCFD recommendations to regulate its requirements into law. As of April 6, 2022, over 1,300 of the largest UK-registered companies and financial institutions will need to disclose climate-related financial information.

This will include many of the UK’s largest traded companies, banks and insurers, as well as private companies with over 500 employees and £500 million in turnover.

SEC Reporting Thresholds – Registrant Categories:

The SEC categorizes registrants by size, which determines rules applicability, as follows:

Status	Public Float	Annual Revenues
Smaller Reporting Company and Non-Accelerated Filer	Less than $75 million	N/A
Smaller Reporting Company and Non-Accelerated Filer	$75 million to less than $700 million	Less than $100 million
Smaller Reporting Company and Accelerated Filer	$75 million to less than $250 million	$100 million or more
Accelerated Filer (not a Smaller Reporting Company)	$250 million to less than $700 million	$100 million or more
Large Accelerated Filer (not a Smaller Reporting Company)	$700 million or more	N/A

New Rules Implementation Timelines:

If the rules get implemented by December 31, 2022, as planned, reporting requirements will take effect in a phased manner by category, as listed in the table below:

Registrant Category	Effective Implementation Date
Large Accelerated Filer	FY 2023 reported in 2024
Accelerated Filer	FY 2024 reported in 2025
Non-Accelerated Filer	FY 2024 reported in 2025
Smaller Reporting Company	FY 2025 reported in 2026

For Scope 3 emissions specifically, there will be an additional year for each category, except in the case of smaller reporting entities, which shall remain exempt from this reporting requirement:

Registrant Category	Effective Implementation Date
Large Accelerated Filer	FY 2024 reported in 2025
Accelerated Filer	FY 2025 reported in 2026
Non-Accelerated Filer	FY 2025 reported in 2026
Smaller Reporting Company	No reporting requirement

Reporting Requirements:

The SEC will require emissions and climate-related management reporting on the behalf of registrants in initial registration (forms 10, S-1, S-11, S-4, and for foreign registrants, forms F-1 and F-4) as well as the annual 10-K (and 20-F for foreign issuers), and quarterly/periodic 10-Q (6-K for foreign issuers) interim reports.

All disclosures would be filed rather than furnished. These would hence be subject to disclosure controls and procedures, including liability, except for certain safe harbors.

Both narrative and quantitative disclosures will be tagged in Inline Extensible Business Reporting Language (IXBRL).

Financial Statements

Per proposed changes to regulation S-X, quantitative factors, the reporting will cover with specified metrics and disclosures the impact of climate-related events on the line items of a registrant’s consolidated financial statements.

The proposed disclosures would address three categories:

Financial impact metrics
Expenditure metrics (separately aggregated for capitalized costs)
Financial estimates and assumptions

Current and potential material impacts of identified climate events on business and consolidated financial statements over the short, medium and long terms will all be presented.

All disclosures would be subject to audit as part of the financial statement assurance process and within scope of the registrant’s internal control of financial reporting.

Separate Section Disclosures

The reporting will cover GHG emissions and other disclosures in a separate and appropriately captioned section, per regulation S-K mandating qualitative disclosures:

Description of Business – Item 101.
Legal proceedings – Item 103.
Risk Factors – Item 105.
Management’s Discussion – Item 303.

The information set for disclosures would include:

Processes for identifying climate-related physical and transition risks.
Governance of the climate-related risk management function.
Integration of climate risk into the registrant’s overall risk management function.
Current and potential effects of identified climate events on strategy, business model and outlook.
If scenario analysis used, description of scenarios including parameters, assumptions, analysis and projections.
Metrics and targets used to identify and manage risks in transition plan, if adopted.
Internal carbon price used, how it is set.
Climate-related targets, goals and transition plan, if publicly set:
- Scope of activities and emissions, timelines
- How targets are intended to be met
- Relevant data on progress against goals, how achieved – updates each year
- Amount of Carbon reduction by any offsets used; amount of renewable energy generated for any Renewable Energy Certificates used.

Materiality Standards:

The standard for materiality of information remains a substantial likelihood that an investor will deem the information important in making an investment decision. There is a negative standard also to be considered, in that if disclosures are omitted, it would significantly change the mix of reporting relevant to the investment decision.

Whereas the standard in Europe has enveloped company-induced impacts occurring external to the company, the SEC has rejected the European double-materiality standard and stayed with impacts upon the registrant itself.

There are bright-line materiality thresholds for metrics. For the financial impacts and expenditure disclosures around financial statements, a 1% threshold is established for materiality. If the aggregate impact of the disclosures relating to any line item exceeds 1% of the total for that line item, disclosure will be deemed material and required.

The SEC has emphasized the dynamic nature of materiality assessments. Because circumstances will shift and vary, a requirement is placed for disclosures for the short, medium and long term.

Emissions Reporting Requirements by Scope:

Whereas the SEC’s previous guidance of 2010 required larger emitters – 25,000 metric tons or more of CO 2 equivalent emitted annually – to report facility-specific emissions as mandated by the EPA, the proposed rules will require emissions information, disaggregated as well as in the aggregate at registrant entity level.

Scope 1 (direct) and 2 (indirect) GHG emissions metrics separately disclosed, in absolute and intensity terms, aggregated as well as disaggregated by constituent GHG.

Scope 3 GHG emissions (scope 2 emissions occurring upstream or downstream of the registrant’s value chain), if material or if target or goal set, in absolute and intensity terms without offsets.

Assurance Requirements:

Attestation by a third-party that meets standards of experience, expertise and independence will be required for certain larger registrants. The attestation level will increase over time from that of Limited Assurance, as currently required for 10-Q financial reports, to Reasonable Assurance as required for 10-K financial report filings.

Assuming rules implementation by December 31, 2022:

Registrant Category	Limited Assurance	Reasonable Assurance
Large Accelerated Filer	Fiscal 2024 filed in 2025	Fiscal 2026 filed in 2027
Accelerated Filer	Fiscal 2025 filed in 2026	Fiscal 2027 filed in 2028

Liability Safe Harbor:

Disclosure of Scope 3 emissions through the registrant’s value chain will require reliance on information provided by third parties. While there is no broad liability safe harbor, a proposed targeted safe harbor would deem such disclosures not fraudulent unless made or affirmed without a reasonable basis or disclosed in other than good faith.

Influences over Final Rules Determination:

The SEC has floated the rules as a draft, establishing a baseline and soliciting comments. The rules are impactful and have proponents as well as detractors.

Challenges

Even the SEC did not have unanimous consent among its commissioners regarding the rules proposed, and there may be changes of commissioners within the SEC before the final rules are issued.

Several members of congress have expressed their opposition to the rules already.

There is the potential for court challenges also, possibly on the basis of:

The SEC’s authority,
a potential violation of first amendment restrictions against compelled speech,
economic cost-benefit considerations.

There may accordingly be expected a softening from aspects of the draft rules in the final set of rules.

Support

But with stakeholder activism regarding climate change and corporate disclosures, there is strong investor pressure towards structured and mandatory corporate sustainability disclosures, particularly climate change. Investors may go beyond even the proposed SEC reporting requirements, in both the content and the timelines of information disclosure. That does appear to be an accelerating trend as alarm regarding deviation from Paris Agreement goals rises. Large institutional investors have been adjusting their investment portfolios in conformance with Environmental Social and Governance considerations for years already, beyond regulatory requirements.

Multiple regulatory authorities and legislative entities may also establish their own requirements regarding aspects of climate impact disclosure that businesses will have to adhere to outside of the SEC’s requirements.

In November 2021 the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) issued guidance for insurers regarding climate change risk management.
A bill passed by the California senate in January 2022 and now with the house would require all businesses with over $1 billion in revenue operating in the state to disclose all emissions data, including scope 3, to the California Secretary of State’s office beginning January 2024.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) floated draft principles for climate-related financial disclosures for large financial institutions in March 2022.

Next for Registrants:

The comment period for the proposed rules will close on May 20, 2022. Registrants may compare the proposed disclosure requirements with their current disclosures, identify gaps, and analyze operational requirements for compliance.

Comments may then be provided to the SEC by registrants until the close date.

Whatever the shape of the final SEC rules, it is clear that there will be a requirement for more robust and structured reporting on climate change influenced by multiple stakeholder and governance groups on all business entities. Organizations need to dedicate appropriate resources accordingly.

© Haseeb Ahmed, The Stanwork Group

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Now or Never: AR6 WG III Report by IPCC on Climate Change Mitigation

Haseeb Ahmed — Fri, 15 Apr 2022 23:21:20 +0000

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) released on April 4, 2022 calls for fast action to stabilize the climate, listing a broad range of opportunities enabling compliance with the commitments made in the 2015 Paris agreement.

Each successive assessment report from the IPCC since the first one in 1990 has conveyed ever-increasing alarm. This third installment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) notes the possibility of a 1.5°C scenario receding rapidly but possible with immediate action. Barring such urgent action, by the next Conference of Parties COP27 in Egypt in December, a 1.5°C possibility will be beyond reach.

Per UN chief Antonio Guterres, the report is “a litany of
broken promises… a file of shame cataloguing empty promises”. Going further, he
states “We are on a fast track to climate disaster.… This
is not fiction or exaggeration, it is what science tells us will result from
our current energy policies.”

Among the disaster scenarios: “major
cities under water, unprecedented heat waves, terrifying storms, widespread
water shortages, the extinction of a million species of plants and animals.”

Background – AR6 Working Groups:

This report comes from working group three (WG III) of AR6.

Topics covered in AR6 by respective groups are:

WG I: The Physical Science Basis – report released in August 2021.
WG III: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – February 2022.
WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change – April 2022.

Focus of AR6 WG III:

The IPCC AR6 WG III report addresses carbon mitigation pathways discussed in earlier IPCC reports and emphasizes two additional pathways: carbon removal and industrial decarbonization.

The report brings demand side mitigation into primary focus. Along with behavioral and lifestyle changes for consumers, advice to planners also, to frame public service in the context of demand rather than supply (methods of fulfilment). Decent Living Standards can be achieved with lower energy expenditure than previously thought.

With the observation that ‘An increasing share of emissions can be attributed to urban areas’, buildings receive special attention in the report, assessed under the SER framework (Sufficiency, Efficiency, Renewable).

The report also emphasizes the need for much greater investment along with technological innovation in climate solutions.

Positive trends:

IPCC notes movement towards goals over the past decade, which has seen:

A drop of 85% in the cost of solar energy, 55% in wind power;
electric vehicles market growing a hundred-fold;
over 20% of Carbon emissions subject to carbon taxes or trading schemes;
over 50 counties legislated emissions-reducing climate laws;
24 countries having reduced emissions consistently;
climate targets covering emissions rising from 49% to around 90% globally;
emissions growth rate declining to 1.3% per year, from 2.1% in previous decade.

Challenges:

Though the rate of increase declined, in absolute terms the global total for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) over the last decade increased to an average of a record 56 billion tons per year.

The total carbon budget remaining for the rest of the century, compliant with a 1.5°C goal, is greatly depleted already and will certainly be overshot in the absence of unforeseen technological innovations or socioeconomic/behavioral shifts.

Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – country level pledges – are grossly inadequate to meet the 1.5°C goal and minimally supportive of a reasonable shot at 2°C.

There are large investment gaps (project finance) and implementation gaps (rapid deployment).

Retaining a 1.5°C target:

Despite it appearing improbable, the goal of 1.5°C retains urgency because the upper limit of 2°C agreed upon in the Paris accords was reported in a subsequent IPCC report in 2018 to cause unacceptably greater impact. Among ecosystem damage differences between the top and bottom of the range, by 2100:

Global sea level rise 10 cm lower;
Arctic Ocean ice-free in summer once per century compared with at least once per decade;
Coral reef decline of 70-90 percent, opposed to more than 99 percent.

The measures needed to contain the warming at 1.5°C have stringency and a requirement of immediacy rendering its overshoot likely. See below.

Requirements for the 1.5°C target:

The IPCC established for a 1.5°C target an emissions limit of 500 billion additional tons of Carbon Dioxide (CO2, contributing most of the Carbon to the atmosphere) between 2020 and 2100, a period of eight decades. At the current remaining balance of 400 billion tons and current emissions rates, this limit is reached within the decade rather than by the end of the century.

Other requirements include a reduction of fossil fuel usage from 2019 levels, by 2050: Coal 95%, Oil 60%, Gas 45%. Global emissions must peak before 2025 and fall by 43 percent from 2019 levels by 2030.

2°C Scenarios:

The focus remains on 1.5°C as a target, even with likely overshoot, also because settling upon a 2°C target does not make the challenge significantly less difficult. The pathways towards the higher figure do not diverge as much as might be expected, as indicated through the magenta and cyan bands in the graphic below that was produced by AR6 WGIII.

There is of course a range of possibilities within the hopefully bookended targets of 1.5°C and 2°C tagged by the Paris Agreement, as indicated in the charts and legend above.

Energy Transition:

With national economic engines dependent mostly on fossil fuels, an energy transition (from fossil fuels to green) that supports development and growth imperatives is not yet convincingly feasible financially though efficiencies and cost reductions are demonstrably taking effect.

Between 2010 and 2019, the Energy Intensity of the global economy – energy required for GDP increase – has decreased by 2% per year, an indicator of increasing efficiency in output generation. And for the production of the energy itself, carbon emissions per unit of energy – Carbon Intensity – have decreased, at a rate of 0.3% per year over the same period, indicating a shift towards green energy.

Paris agreement imperatives for Carbon Intensity decrease, however, are rates of 3.5% per year in a 2°C scenario and 7.7% in a 1.5°C scenario.

Fossil Fuels in the Mix:

In any warming scenario within the range stipulated by the Paris Agreement, there may now be no new unabated fossil fuel projects, and existing powerplants and refineries will need to be wound down sooner than the currently determined lifespans that attracted initial investment. Abatement technologies such as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS, also abbreviated CCS) have not received the required priority and investment over past decades to have been developed to a point of feasibility at present.

The report notes: ‘If investments in coal and other fossil infrastructure continue, energy systems will be locked-in to higher emissions, making it harder to limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C (high confidence). Many aspects of the energy system – physical infrastructure; institutions, laws, and regulations; and behavior – are resistant to change or take many years to change.’

It further acknowledges: ‘Limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C will strand fossil-related assets, including fossil infrastructure and unburned fossil fuel resources (high confidence). The economic impacts of stranded assets could amount to trillions of dollars. Coal assets are most vulnerable over the coming decade; oil and gas assets are more vulnerable toward mid-century. CCS can allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing potential stranded assets’.

IPCC modeling does assume in all its scenarios that there will be residual emissions by 2050 that will require abatement either through chemical processes like CCUS, or through ecological methods like reforestation and ecosystem restoration.

Chemical processes are prohibitively expensive currently (for a ton of Carbon, around $600), with no clear indication of their commercial feasibility under present conditions despite hope for exponential advancement. Efficiencies and an accelerating drop in costs of solar energy generation are presented as an example of such advancement, though that has required decades in the making.

Ecological solutions appear low-hanging fruit but pose their own challenges, such as reduction of agricultural land and the need for maintenance of trees, which can themselves become the source of carbon emissions in the case of forest fires in conditions of extreme drought.

Mitigation Options Available:

The report notes with optimism that given the urgent action required, there are options to halve emissions by 2050 in all sectors. It identifies:

Energy sector transitions – renewable energy, alternative fuels, improved energy efficiency;
consumer behavior changes – waste-minimization in consumption, public transport;
smart urban planning – compact cities, transport electrification, zero-carbon buildings;
circular economy, waste-minimization, efficient low-to-zero-carbon processes in production;
smart agriculture, forestry and land use.

The need to integrate urban mitigation and adaptation strategies for cities to address climate change is pressed urgently, with reference to the double threat of rising emissions and more frequent extreme weather events.

Demand side mitigation is emphasized: it can result in emissions reductions of 40-70% compared with that from pledges made by governments prior to 2020. For planners, it offers a paradigm: ‘People demand services and not primary energy and physical resources per se. Focusing on demand for services and the different social and political roles people play broadens the climate solution space.’

Investment Requirements:

Financial flows towards climate change mitigation need to be scaled up 3 to 6 times the current levels by 2030 for even a 2°C scenario. These may target clean energy, efficiency, transport, agriculture and forestation as outlined in the mitigation options listed above.

There is adequate Global capital and liquidity to meet requirements but closing the investment gap will require stronger alignment of public sector finance and policy and clear signaling of support and commitment by governments and international organizations.

The graphic from the report listed below provides in color-coded form the costs of various mitigation options and their impact to net emissions reduction by 2030, scaling up in gigatons. Blue is below current reference cost. Mustard signifies less than $20 per ton. Increasing costs are indicated in darker color bands per the legend at the bottom right of the table.

Key Takeaways:

Raising yet higher the already alarming warnings from earlier reports, this report appears to present the last now or never opportunity before a 1.5°C possibility is gone forever.

It proposes immediate action with much greater financial flows and demand side management, summarized below:

Reduction in fossil fuel use, development of abatement technology for residual emissions;
Carbon removal projects, chemical and ecological;
Socio-cultural and behavioral change, supportive policy;
Clean energy investment.

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Ready for a Coronavirus breath test?

Anika H Ahmed MD — Fri, 15 Apr 2022 22:43:58 +0000

The words ‘Breath test’ immediately bring to mind the image of being pulled over by the police and asked for a driver’s license followed by the breath test, where you have to blow as hard as you can. Well, that association is going to change with the recent emergency approval of ‘InspectIR Covid-19 Breathalyzer’ by the US Food and Drug Administration that is able to spot chemical compounds associated with the Coronavirus in the breath.

This emergency approval on Thursday, April 14, 2022, shall prove to be a turning point in the early diagnosis and management of Covid-19.

The approved breathalyzer should soon be available in doctor’s offices, pharmacies, clinic, hospitals, mobile health clinics, testing sites, and later, even at airports for a quick confirmation of a possible positive case. It is able to separate and identify chemical mixtures to quickly detect 5 compounds related to SARS-COV-2 infection and is able to give results in less than 3 minutes.

It shall prove to be practical as it can be wheeled around like carry-on luggage and can be moved from place to place very easily. So far, the clinical trial carried on with it indicates that it is able to detect 90% of positive cases and 100% of all negative cases. Furthermore the ‘InspectIR Covid 19 was also tried on the Omicron variant and found to be highly effective in detecting positive cases. The Food and Drug Administration still recommends, however, that a positive test should be confirmed with a PCR test too.

The successful operation of the InspectIR in detecting positive cases is another positive innovative step towards a safer tomorrow. This shall equip medical workers with an innovative tool that can help in early diagnosis of all possible positive cases, with immediate management with isolation and quarantine to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus and keep all contacts at the minimum.

Advanced technology with modern effective quick testing tools is making it possible to achieve the target of keeping our communities safe from Covid-19 and all Covid-19-related hospitalization down to zero in future!

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Covid at all Time Low: – Kudos, Everyone!

Anika H Ahmed MD — Thu, 07 Apr 2022 17:23:31 +0000

The first week of April 2022 has become historical as we hear the much-awaited news that hospitalization due to Covid-19 in the United States is at its all-time low now. Numbers collected by the US Department of Health & Human Services, which started tracking the information in July 2020, indicate that as of Tuesday, March 5^th, 2022, there were 15,250 positive Covid-19 people hospitalized in US hospitals. Data also indicates that presently only 2% of the hospital beds are being used for Covid-19 patients.

The previous lowest point was reached at the end of June 2021 with 160,000 people hospitalized with Covid-19, and then everything changed as we were hit by the Delta variant, followed closely by the Omicron variant.

Heaving a deep sigh of relief, it is time to congratulate everyone who made this happen. Special plaudits go to all the health workers, working tirelessly round the clock taking care of the sick in hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, parking lots and makeshift hospitals in churches, temples, mosques, hotels, pavilions, theatres, and stadiums. It is time to acknowledge our clinicians, researchers, statisticians, scientists, pharmacists, pharmaceutical staff members, program managers and data analysts who worked behind the doors to get effective vaccines out to the masses, in record breaking time.

Special kudos to the people of America who followed the SOPs laid out by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. The extreme loneliness coming from self-isolation over the last two years, at times quarantine & depression also, has paid off. Those following the SOPs wore masks sometimes for over 24 hours not only at work but also during travel in tight compartments, is now showing positive results.

Kudos also to the US Food and Drug Administration for the fast approval of the much-needed vaccines for different age groups.

A recent poll conducted by CNN indicates that the majority in significant parts of the United States still feel that Covid-19 continues to affect their lifestyles. Mask wearing and social distance has become a way of life for them, and they wish to continue with it. The poll indicates that 59% of those polled state that people should continue to wear masks in public places to prevent another surge of Covid-19 cases.

Can the remaining 41% join this practice to bring the present low 2% Covid-19 US hospitalization to a zero?

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Are you Ready for a fourth shot of Coronavirus Vaccine?

Anika H Ahmed MD — Tue, 29 Mar 2022 19:51:01 +0000

As the last booster shot for the majority of Americans appears to be either more than six months or nearing six months’ time frame, many wonder if they still retain immunity against the Coronavirus. One question that I have been asked multiple times at social gatherings is ‘Am I done with vaccination for Covid-19?’. The answer to this question is NO.

We will not likely ever be done with vaccinations for Covid-19 and we will need to keep our immunization status updated, as new variants sprout and our immune systems indicate weakness with low immunity status.

The Food and Drug Administration recently approved a fourth booster shot of both Pfizer and Moderna, for people over 50 years of age. This will soon be available and all individuals in this age bracket are encouraged to get this shot if their last booster shot has been more than four months ago.

Many debate whether only 65 and above should go for it but the recent Food and Drug Administration approval for 50 years and above approval even without consultation of their independent panel of experts, indicates that there is an immediate and urgent need to boost the immune system of a larger age bracket.

This step has been taken to give extra protection to a vulnerable population just in case there is a new wave of Coronavirus with new variants like BA.2 or Omicron. Previously the Food and Drug Administration had approved the fourth booster shot for only 12 years and older with a very weak, vulnerable immune system, and now it has stated that this group may need an additional fifth dose to keep immunity strong.

The data of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that the number of Covid-19 cases are at its all-time low after the winter surge with Omicron, and about two thirds of Americans have gotten their two initial doses and a booster dose of Covid-19 vaccination. The recommendation by Food and Drug Administration for a fourth shot is a precaution to prevent a new surge in Covid-19 cases.

Data shared by other countries like Israel indicates that populations receiving a fourth booster shot definitely showed fewer positive cases compared to populations without a fourth shot.

The data recently released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicates that during the highly infectious US Omicron wave, two doses of Covid-19 vaccination were 80% effective against hospitalization requiring the use of a ventilator, and a third booster shot raised the effectiveness to 94%. Those in the immunocompromised group without a third booster shot demonstrated vaccine efficacy of only 74%.

These are encouraging numbers further emphasizing the need to keep the immune system strong with multiple layers of defense and prevent deaths from Coronavirus. Research so far indicates that immunity from vaccination starts wearing off after six months or so, and the vulnerable elderly population should plan on getting a fourth booster shot.

Time will eventually tell as to how many more booster shots may be needed and for how long each booster shot will impart immunity. Presently it remains our responsibility to follow guidance of the regulatory authorities and get our booster shots when recommended to do so. This will be our civil duty to keep each other protected from this deadly, severely-infectious virus which has established a record of causing one of the worst pandemics in history.

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And here comes a new variant of Coronavirus! Highly-Transmissible Omicron BA.2

Anika H Ahmed MD — Tue, 22 Mar 2022 08:18:13 +0000

Researchers and scientists have been keeping a close watch on any further Coronavirus mutation giving rise to a new variant without taking a break. All possible tools are being used, varying from rapid antigen testing and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic tests to even testing of sewage water for early diagnosis of positive possible variant cases.

As warily expected, a new highly-transmissible variant of the circulating Omicron variant, now named BA.2, has been detected not only in the United States but also overseas. It is presently seen mostly in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom.

The people at risk are mostly the still unimmunized population. In the United States at present there are 28 million seniors who are largely at risk of getting seriously ill from Covid-19, because they are either still unimmunized or partially immunized, or their last immunization shot was more than 5 months ago.

Ongoing clinical trials indicate that the immunity generated with vaccines wanes over time. Protection from vaccines against the Omicron variant is only 10% effective after six months of a second dose of immunization. Although booster shots of vaccine do boost the immune system, scientists are now researching and investigating the long term benefits of vaccine protection against the Omicron variant of Coronavirus.

The conclusion drawn so far is that booster shots are 40-50% effective in preventing an Omicron infection among adults.

The new Omicron variant BA.2 can easily cause a severe Covid-19 infection in the vulnerable, unimmunized population, especially the elderly, children under 5 years of age, and the very young toddlers and infants that are still waiting for their vaccination shots.

Everyone needs to still exercise caution to prevent yet another wave of Covid-19, and not allow it to spring back again into a pandemic stage from a much-awaited endemic stage.

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Covid-19 Pandemic Second Anniversary marking once-incredible milestone

Anika H Ahmed MD — Fri, 11 Mar 2022 05:29:46 +0000

Today, Friday March 11, 2022, marks the second anniversary of the Covid-19 pandemic and for everyone it is a solemn moment of reflection of where we are today. March 11, 2020, was when Americans received news of the World Health Organization declaring Covid-19 outbreak a global pandemic. Majority of the working class went home with instructions for remote work, given responsibility of figuring out various collaboration packages on their own to stay connected.

Stores ran out of toilet paper, paper towels and all cleaning supplies, as people hoarded essential items in fear of the unknown. Grocery stores showed empty shelves of dry rations, parking lots remained full as people anxiously shopped as if preparing for a famine or a war. It was indeed on a war footing that the fight against the microscopic enemy named Coronavirus was launched.

Tribute must be paid to the essential health workers who have been working long shifts, not only at the hospitals taking care of the seriously sick, but also at laboratories and research centers running tests and gathering more information about the Coronavirus, its life cycle, spread, variants, symptoms, and management.

Two years later, we sadly note a heavy toll of deaths despite rushed clinical trials and vaccinations approvals.

The latest statistics shared by John Hopkins University show that more than 964,000 Americans have fallen victim to this deadly, merciless, microscopic enemy with a death toll of 50,000 in just the past 28 days. At this current rate, it looks like by the end of March we shall get to the somber milestone of 1 million Covid-19 deaths in the United States of America alone.

How wrong was the prediction of 100,000 deaths in total made in April 2020 by the then administration? In February 2021, soon after the new administration came into office, the death toll hit 500,000. One year later we are now approaching one million, a grim, sad milestone that was totally unimaginable at the beginning of Covid-19 pandemic.

Our present statistics clearly indicate that we are not out of the woods yet.

An announcement coming out today also extended the mask wearing requirement on airlines and all kinds of public transport to April 18. This is a smart decision, as after the announcement by the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention of lifting essential mask wearing indoors in public places like restaurants etc. and allowing it to be an individual’s personal decision, led to the majority dumping their masks and starting a mask free, carefree life.

Although most of the states have moved to an ‘Endemic’ state with pledges of quick management of community outbreaks, with efficient quick testing, daily single pill management, isolation and shut down of positive areas, we all still need to stay responsible.

Every individual needs to remain cautious and avoid any behavior that may give rise to spread of new variants, further prolonging the misery of the pandemic. We may need to live with the Coronavirus but let us be in control of the virus and not let it continue to control our lives!

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Is it really time to let your guard down?

Anika H Ahmed MD — Thu, 10 Mar 2022 14:43:35 +0000

After the Centers of Disease Control announced a mask less policy, based on the number of hospitalizations, vaccination status and prevalence of positive cases, people were overjoyed. Public places opened doors to welcome eager visitors who are out to have fun and put the pandemic behind them. The message read on everyone face is ‘Covid -19 is a thing of the past and it can no longer control our lives’. But how true is it?

I had a chance of being at the Union Station last night in Washington and was horrified to see the majority stepping out of trains with no masks. My main worry is that we are being over enthusiastic and somewhat negligent in letting go of the mask too soon. Yes, according to NBC news data, in every state of the United States the rate of hospitalization has decreased by at least 47% and in many states even as much as 70%. In the past one month, the daily death rates have gone down by more than 43%, coming down from a one-week average of 2,600 per day.

But can we ignore the fact that we are still having 1,500 deaths/day?

We Americans as a nation have seen our death graphs go so sky high over the past two years, with a total death count from Coronavirus being above 950,000, that having 1,500 deaths per day appears minimal. If we step back and look at our numbers from March 2020 to March 2022, the reduction in numbers is encouraging, but still of concern.

The fact that there are still gaps in our health system and primarily in healthcare services in some states, with laboratories not well equipped for testing Coronavirus, especially its new variants, does point towards a need for maintaining caution. Letting go of the masks outdoors is acceptable as long as you are fully vaccinated, can maintain social distance, are not immunocompromised or taking care of an immunocompromised individual, old or young.

Don’t throw away all your masks, have them handy in case you come across people coughing and sneezing. One good thing that the Coronavirus has taught us is taking care of basic hygiene. Everyone is in the habit of washing hands frequently, especially when returning from public spaces, and it has become a habit for the majority. Kids growing up in this pandemic will have good hygiene habits for life.

Word of caution for everyone is: do not let your guard down yet. Carry your hand sanitizer still, with frequent use – remember it kills most of the germs, including Coronavirus, that you pick up from anywhere and get sick because of. Wait, don’t let go of your masks yet!

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