Sustainability Archives - Stanwork

Global Energy Emissions, Demand, Mix and Transition towards Sustainability

Haseeb Ahmed — Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:48:20 +0000

How do we appear positioned at present to meet emissions reduction targets established by the Paris Agreement? In context, considering energy, a main contributor to emissions, topics of relevance:

- - - - Current global demand for energy
        Projections for future demand
        Contours of an Energy transition
        Energy mix between fossil fuels and renewables
        View forward: uncertain business models, public sector support.

A concise rendering of current information regarding these topics, in the discussion below.

Global Warming Trajectories across Emissions Scenarios

The desired goal of limiting global warming to A 1.5°C increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels is fast receding as a possibility.

In a positive scenario, of adherence to NetZero commitments made in COP26 by 64 countries representing 89% of global emissions, additional commitments aspired to, and technology improvements expected per current trends, we will end up with a 1.7°C increase instead.

And the trajectory of renewable energy cost decline with current policies leads to a dismal 2.4°C future, well above the upper limit of 2.0°C in the Paris Agreement.

The Role of Energy in Global Emissions

The global energy system that drives our economies and maintains our standards of living is a key factor in all considerations of emissions reduction. A 1.5°C scenario may be possible still, with a greatly accelerated transformation of the Energy sector. From the current state of fossil fuels use, there will need to be greater efficiency and a move towards electrification and new fuels – faster and more extensively than predicated by the present commitments made by governments and corporations.

Demand for Energy

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes in 2021 increased by 6% over 2020, in a very close correlation with the economic output (GDP) increase of 5.9%, to an all-time high of 36.3 gigatonnes (Gt).

A tonne is a metric ton, 1000 kilograms (kgs) or 2,205 pounds (lbs). A ‘ton’ can be short (907.2 kgs, equaling 2,000 lbs.), or long (1,016.05 kgs, equaling 2,240 lbs.)

A gigatonne is a billion tonnes. That’s 2.2 trillion pounds. For context: NASA informs us this is the weight of 10,000 fully-loaded U.S. aircraft carriers; the Washington Post tells us this is well over what 100 million African elephants would weigh.

Electricity and heat production accounted for 46% of the increase, with coal, at an all-time high of 15.3 Gt, constituting over 40% of the CO2 emissions growth.

The global increase in electricity and heat sector emissions can almost all be attributed to China, the only major economy experiencing growth in both 2020 and 2021. Electricity demand in China still increased by 10% in 2021 over 2020, outpacing the commensurate economic growth of 8.4%. Just this year-on-year increase was equivalent to the total demand for the entire African continent.

Record high prices for natural gas along with lower operating costs for coal plants across the US and much of Europe also brought about a greater reliance on coal for power generation in 2021.

Energy consumption variations

There is wide variance in energy consumption between regions and countries. In 2020 Iceland came in at a per capita demand of around 167,000 kWhrs, the US at 74,000, albeit with a population 1,000 times larger.

The world average was around 20,000 kWhrs. China came in at 28,000, the EU at around 35,000.

The equivalent figure for Somalia, last derived in 2019, is 236 – no zeroes to go with that.

Emissions per capita

Converting CO2 emissions into a per capita basis for an equivalent comparison, China is registered at 8.4 tonnes, the US 14 tonnes, EU 6 tonnes. Somalia is at 0.04 tonnes.

Energy Transition

With national economic engines dependent mostly on fossil fuels, an energy transition (from fossil fuels to green) that supports development and growth imperatives is not yet convincingly feasible financially, though efficiencies and cost reductions are demonstrably taking effect and are expected to improve returns on investment in green energy over time. McKinsey expects that returns on decarbonization technologies and power could outpace the growth in investment by 2035.

The 20% contribution of electricity to the total energy mix now is projected to increase to 40% by 2050. Hydrogen is expected to develop as the new fuel.

The two factors of electrification and new fuels such as Hydrogen should cause a reduction of 40% in fossil fuel use by 2050, compared with 2020.

And for the production of the energy itself, carbon emissions per unit of energy – Carbon Intensity – have decreased, at a rate of 0.3% per year over the same period, indicating a shift towards green energy. Paris agreement imperatives for Carbon Intensity decrease, however, are rates of 3.5% per year in a 2°C scenario and 7.7% in a 1.5°C scenario.

Demand for energy will continue to increase but at a lower rate, despite an increase of 2 billion in the world population and rapid, exponential growth in the global economy by 2100.

Continuing reductions in the energy intensity of production and greater efficiency in industry, buildings and transport will be the offsetting factors.

Fossil Fuels in the Energy Mix

Abatement technologies such as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS, also abbreviated CCS) have not received the required priority and investment over past decades to have been developed to a point of feasibility at present.

Per the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), If investments in coal and other fossil infrastructure continue, energy systems will be locked-in to higher emissions, making it harder to limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. Many aspects of the energy system – physical infrastructure; institutions, laws, and regulations; and behavior – are resistant to change or take many years to change.’

Limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C will also cause stranded fossil-related assets, including fossil infrastructure and unburned fossil fuel resources. The economic impacts of stranded assets could amount to trillions of dollars.

Coal assets are most vulnerable over the coming decade; oil and gas assets are more vulnerable toward mid-century. Coal demand has already peaked, while oil demand will peak in the next two to five years. Gas demand is expected to continue through about 2035.

CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing potential stranded assets.

Fossil fuel emissions abatement

In all its scenarios that there will be residual emissions by 2050 that will require abatement either through chemical processes like CCUS or through ecological methods like reforestation and ecosystem restoration.

Chemical processes are prohibitively expensive currently (for a ton of Carbon, around $600), with no clear indication of their commercial feasibility under present conditions despite hope for exponential advancement. Ecological solutions appear low-hanging fruit but pose their own challenges, such as reduction of agricultural land and the need for maintenance of trees, which can themselves become the source of carbon emissions in the case of forest fires in conditions of extreme drought.

Quick View Forward: Business Models in a Decarbonized Economy

There will be uncertainty across economic sectors. Besides massive investment and public demand side management through catalyzation and incentives, respectively, governments will have to join business and society for the use of policy to affect adjustments in market design.

© Haseeb Ahmed, The Stanwork Group

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Momentous SEC Climate Reporting Rules proposed: to take effect beginning with Filings in 2024

Haseeb Ahmed — Thu, 05 May 2022 20:08:10 +0000

On March 21 this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed rule changes requiring registrants to include material climate-related disclosures in their registration documents and periodic filings. The comment period for the proposed rules ends May 20, 2022, after which it will likely take the rest of the year before the SEC finalizes the rules. If finalized by Dec 31, 2022, the rules are expected to apply to filings for FY 2023 beginning in 2024 according to a schedule determined by the registrant’s category.

The rules apply to all SEC registrants except registered investment companies, asset-based issuers and Canadian issuers filing under the Multi-Jurisdictional Disclosure System (MJDS).

This will have a profound impact on large emitters, as oil and gas, energy, industrial, construction, transportation and even agriculture may be categorized; it may be noted that these presently constitute the heart of global economic growth engines.

Context and Background:

The disclosures are intended to allow investors to make informed decisions regarding investment in companies with an account of their climate risk, the material business impact therein, and their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Following the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s regulation of emissions under the Clean Air Act in 2009, the SEC had issued guidance in 2010 requiring large emitters (25,000 tons or more) of GHG emissions to collect and report data regarding their emissions annually. The proposed rules in 2022 raise the requirements several notches up from previous guidance to detailed mandatory requirements broadening the scope of reporting.

Broad Disclosure Requirements:

Registrants would provide detailed information about their management of climate change issues, including climate-related governance, strategy, risk management and metrics, and goals. These respective areas conform to the familiar four pillars outlined by the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) convened by the Financial Stability Board, upon which, along with measurement and reporting of GHG emissions in accordance with the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, the proposed requirements are mostly based.

Whereas TCFD addresses climate-related opportunities also, the SEC rules address climate risk only. Although its eleven recommended disclosure topics organized into the four reporting pillars present a voluntary framework, several international jurisdictions are codifying aspects of it.

Following GHG Protocol, emissions of seven gases covered by the Kyoto Agreement will be reported upon: Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, Nitrogen Trifluoride, and Sulphur Hexafluoride.

Paralleling International Sustainability Reporting Standards:

The European Union has maintained a more forward stance on sustainability and climate-related disclosures preceding the recent SEC rules proposal. In April 2021 the European Commission issued the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) introducing mandated EU sustainability standards, to be prepared by the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) and adopted through secondary legislation. The first set of standards is due for adoption by 31 October, 2022 for applicability in FY 2023; the second set of standards will apply in FY 2024.

The directive will apply to all listed companies, and to all large companies meeting at least 2 out of 3 criteria: 250 employees, and/or over €40M turnover, and/or over €20M in total assets.

The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation had announced at the COP26 in November 2021 the formation of the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), unifying and consolidating multiple reporting frameworks for global standardization of sustainability reporting. A working group of the ISSB floated draft reporting requirements compatible with the Paris Agreement on March 31, 2022, that international institutional investors will be seeking compliance with.

Among the countries incorporating TCFD recommendations into legislation or regulation are Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UK, discussed below.

Regulation Precedent Set by the UK

The proposed regulations are preceded in action by the United Kingdom, the first country in the G-20 following TCFD recommendations to regulate its requirements into law. As of April 6, 2022, over 1,300 of the largest UK-registered companies and financial institutions will need to disclose climate-related financial information.

This will include many of the UK’s largest traded companies, banks and insurers, as well as private companies with over 500 employees and £500 million in turnover.

SEC Reporting Thresholds – Registrant Categories:

The SEC categorizes registrants by size, which determines rules applicability, as follows:

Status	Public Float	Annual Revenues
Smaller Reporting Company and Non-Accelerated Filer	Less than $75 million	N/A
Smaller Reporting Company and Non-Accelerated Filer	$75 million to less than $700 million	Less than $100 million
Smaller Reporting Company and Accelerated Filer	$75 million to less than $250 million	$100 million or more
Accelerated Filer (not a Smaller Reporting Company)	$250 million to less than $700 million	$100 million or more
Large Accelerated Filer (not a Smaller Reporting Company)	$700 million or more	N/A

New Rules Implementation Timelines:

If the rules get implemented by December 31, 2022, as planned, reporting requirements will take effect in a phased manner by category, as listed in the table below:

Registrant Category	Effective Implementation Date
Large Accelerated Filer	FY 2023 reported in 2024
Accelerated Filer	FY 2024 reported in 2025
Non-Accelerated Filer	FY 2024 reported in 2025
Smaller Reporting Company	FY 2025 reported in 2026

For Scope 3 emissions specifically, there will be an additional year for each category, except in the case of smaller reporting entities, which shall remain exempt from this reporting requirement:

Registrant Category	Effective Implementation Date
Large Accelerated Filer	FY 2024 reported in 2025
Accelerated Filer	FY 2025 reported in 2026
Non-Accelerated Filer	FY 2025 reported in 2026
Smaller Reporting Company	No reporting requirement

Reporting Requirements:

The SEC will require emissions and climate-related management reporting on the behalf of registrants in initial registration (forms 10, S-1, S-11, S-4, and for foreign registrants, forms F-1 and F-4) as well as the annual 10-K (and 20-F for foreign issuers), and quarterly/periodic 10-Q (6-K for foreign issuers) interim reports.

All disclosures would be filed rather than furnished. These would hence be subject to disclosure controls and procedures, including liability, except for certain safe harbors.

Both narrative and quantitative disclosures will be tagged in Inline Extensible Business Reporting Language (IXBRL).

Financial Statements

Per proposed changes to regulation S-X, quantitative factors, the reporting will cover with specified metrics and disclosures the impact of climate-related events on the line items of a registrant’s consolidated financial statements.

The proposed disclosures would address three categories:

Financial impact metrics
Expenditure metrics (separately aggregated for capitalized costs)
Financial estimates and assumptions

Current and potential material impacts of identified climate events on business and consolidated financial statements over the short, medium and long terms will all be presented.

All disclosures would be subject to audit as part of the financial statement assurance process and within scope of the registrant’s internal control of financial reporting.

Separate Section Disclosures

The reporting will cover GHG emissions and other disclosures in a separate and appropriately captioned section, per regulation S-K mandating qualitative disclosures:

Description of Business – Item 101.
Legal proceedings – Item 103.
Risk Factors – Item 105.
Management’s Discussion – Item 303.

The information set for disclosures would include:

Processes for identifying climate-related physical and transition risks.
Governance of the climate-related risk management function.
Integration of climate risk into the registrant’s overall risk management function.
Current and potential effects of identified climate events on strategy, business model and outlook.
If scenario analysis used, description of scenarios including parameters, assumptions, analysis and projections.
Metrics and targets used to identify and manage risks in transition plan, if adopted.
Internal carbon price used, how it is set.
Climate-related targets, goals and transition plan, if publicly set:
- Scope of activities and emissions, timelines
- How targets are intended to be met
- Relevant data on progress against goals, how achieved – updates each year
- Amount of Carbon reduction by any offsets used; amount of renewable energy generated for any Renewable Energy Certificates used.

Materiality Standards:

The standard for materiality of information remains a substantial likelihood that an investor will deem the information important in making an investment decision. There is a negative standard also to be considered, in that if disclosures are omitted, it would significantly change the mix of reporting relevant to the investment decision.

Whereas the standard in Europe has enveloped company-induced impacts occurring external to the company, the SEC has rejected the European double-materiality standard and stayed with impacts upon the registrant itself.

There are bright-line materiality thresholds for metrics. For the financial impacts and expenditure disclosures around financial statements, a 1% threshold is established for materiality. If the aggregate impact of the disclosures relating to any line item exceeds 1% of the total for that line item, disclosure will be deemed material and required.

The SEC has emphasized the dynamic nature of materiality assessments. Because circumstances will shift and vary, a requirement is placed for disclosures for the short, medium and long term.

Emissions Reporting Requirements by Scope:

Whereas the SEC’s previous guidance of 2010 required larger emitters – 25,000 metric tons or more of CO 2 equivalent emitted annually – to report facility-specific emissions as mandated by the EPA, the proposed rules will require emissions information, disaggregated as well as in the aggregate at registrant entity level.

Scope 1 (direct) and 2 (indirect) GHG emissions metrics separately disclosed, in absolute and intensity terms, aggregated as well as disaggregated by constituent GHG.

Scope 3 GHG emissions (scope 2 emissions occurring upstream or downstream of the registrant’s value chain), if material or if target or goal set, in absolute and intensity terms without offsets.

Assurance Requirements:

Attestation by a third-party that meets standards of experience, expertise and independence will be required for certain larger registrants. The attestation level will increase over time from that of Limited Assurance, as currently required for 10-Q financial reports, to Reasonable Assurance as required for 10-K financial report filings.

Assuming rules implementation by December 31, 2022:

Registrant Category	Limited Assurance	Reasonable Assurance
Large Accelerated Filer	Fiscal 2024 filed in 2025	Fiscal 2026 filed in 2027
Accelerated Filer	Fiscal 2025 filed in 2026	Fiscal 2027 filed in 2028

Liability Safe Harbor:

Disclosure of Scope 3 emissions through the registrant’s value chain will require reliance on information provided by third parties. While there is no broad liability safe harbor, a proposed targeted safe harbor would deem such disclosures not fraudulent unless made or affirmed without a reasonable basis or disclosed in other than good faith.

Influences over Final Rules Determination:

The SEC has floated the rules as a draft, establishing a baseline and soliciting comments. The rules are impactful and have proponents as well as detractors.

Challenges

Even the SEC did not have unanimous consent among its commissioners regarding the rules proposed, and there may be changes of commissioners within the SEC before the final rules are issued.

Several members of congress have expressed their opposition to the rules already.

There is the potential for court challenges also, possibly on the basis of:

The SEC’s authority,
a potential violation of first amendment restrictions against compelled speech,
economic cost-benefit considerations.

There may accordingly be expected a softening from aspects of the draft rules in the final set of rules.

Support

But with stakeholder activism regarding climate change and corporate disclosures, there is strong investor pressure towards structured and mandatory corporate sustainability disclosures, particularly climate change. Investors may go beyond even the proposed SEC reporting requirements, in both the content and the timelines of information disclosure. That does appear to be an accelerating trend as alarm regarding deviation from Paris Agreement goals rises. Large institutional investors have been adjusting their investment portfolios in conformance with Environmental Social and Governance considerations for years already, beyond regulatory requirements.

Multiple regulatory authorities and legislative entities may also establish their own requirements regarding aspects of climate impact disclosure that businesses will have to adhere to outside of the SEC’s requirements.

In November 2021 the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) issued guidance for insurers regarding climate change risk management.
A bill passed by the California senate in January 2022 and now with the house would require all businesses with over $1 billion in revenue operating in the state to disclose all emissions data, including scope 3, to the California Secretary of State’s office beginning January 2024.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) floated draft principles for climate-related financial disclosures for large financial institutions in March 2022.

Next for Registrants:

The comment period for the proposed rules will close on May 20, 2022. Registrants may compare the proposed disclosure requirements with their current disclosures, identify gaps, and analyze operational requirements for compliance.

Comments may then be provided to the SEC by registrants until the close date.

Whatever the shape of the final SEC rules, it is clear that there will be a requirement for more robust and structured reporting on climate change influenced by multiple stakeholder and governance groups on all business entities. Organizations need to dedicate appropriate resources accordingly.

© Haseeb Ahmed, The Stanwork Group

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Now or Never: AR6 WG III Report by IPCC on Climate Change Mitigation

Haseeb Ahmed — Fri, 15 Apr 2022 23:21:20 +0000

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) released on April 4, 2022 calls for fast action to stabilize the climate, listing a broad range of opportunities enabling compliance with the commitments made in the 2015 Paris agreement.

Each successive assessment report from the IPCC since the first one in 1990 has conveyed ever-increasing alarm. This third installment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) notes the possibility of a 1.5°C scenario receding rapidly but possible with immediate action. Barring such urgent action, by the next Conference of Parties COP27 in Egypt in December, a 1.5°C possibility will be beyond reach.

Per UN chief Antonio Guterres, the report is “a litany of
broken promises… a file of shame cataloguing empty promises”. Going further, he
states “We are on a fast track to climate disaster.… This
is not fiction or exaggeration, it is what science tells us will result from
our current energy policies.”

Among the disaster scenarios: “major
cities under water, unprecedented heat waves, terrifying storms, widespread
water shortages, the extinction of a million species of plants and animals.”

Background – AR6 Working Groups:

This report comes from working group three (WG III) of AR6.

Topics covered in AR6 by respective groups are:

WG I: The Physical Science Basis – report released in August 2021.
WG III: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – February 2022.
WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change – April 2022.

Focus of AR6 WG III:

The IPCC AR6 WG III report addresses carbon mitigation pathways discussed in earlier IPCC reports and emphasizes two additional pathways: carbon removal and industrial decarbonization.

The report brings demand side mitigation into primary focus. Along with behavioral and lifestyle changes for consumers, advice to planners also, to frame public service in the context of demand rather than supply (methods of fulfilment). Decent Living Standards can be achieved with lower energy expenditure than previously thought.

With the observation that ‘An increasing share of emissions can be attributed to urban areas’, buildings receive special attention in the report, assessed under the SER framework (Sufficiency, Efficiency, Renewable).

The report also emphasizes the need for much greater investment along with technological innovation in climate solutions.

Positive trends:

IPCC notes movement towards goals over the past decade, which has seen:

A drop of 85% in the cost of solar energy, 55% in wind power;
electric vehicles market growing a hundred-fold;
over 20% of Carbon emissions subject to carbon taxes or trading schemes;
over 50 counties legislated emissions-reducing climate laws;
24 countries having reduced emissions consistently;
climate targets covering emissions rising from 49% to around 90% globally;
emissions growth rate declining to 1.3% per year, from 2.1% in previous decade.

Challenges:

Though the rate of increase declined, in absolute terms the global total for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) over the last decade increased to an average of a record 56 billion tons per year.

The total carbon budget remaining for the rest of the century, compliant with a 1.5°C goal, is greatly depleted already and will certainly be overshot in the absence of unforeseen technological innovations or socioeconomic/behavioral shifts.

Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – country level pledges – are grossly inadequate to meet the 1.5°C goal and minimally supportive of a reasonable shot at 2°C.

There are large investment gaps (project finance) and implementation gaps (rapid deployment).

Retaining a 1.5°C target:

Despite it appearing improbable, the goal of 1.5°C retains urgency because the upper limit of 2°C agreed upon in the Paris accords was reported in a subsequent IPCC report in 2018 to cause unacceptably greater impact. Among ecosystem damage differences between the top and bottom of the range, by 2100:

Global sea level rise 10 cm lower;
Arctic Ocean ice-free in summer once per century compared with at least once per decade;
Coral reef decline of 70-90 percent, opposed to more than 99 percent.

The measures needed to contain the warming at 1.5°C have stringency and a requirement of immediacy rendering its overshoot likely. See below.

Requirements for the 1.5°C target:

The IPCC established for a 1.5°C target an emissions limit of 500 billion additional tons of Carbon Dioxide (CO2, contributing most of the Carbon to the atmosphere) between 2020 and 2100, a period of eight decades. At the current remaining balance of 400 billion tons and current emissions rates, this limit is reached within the decade rather than by the end of the century.

Other requirements include a reduction of fossil fuel usage from 2019 levels, by 2050: Coal 95%, Oil 60%, Gas 45%. Global emissions must peak before 2025 and fall by 43 percent from 2019 levels by 2030.

2°C Scenarios:

The focus remains on 1.5°C as a target, even with likely overshoot, also because settling upon a 2°C target does not make the challenge significantly less difficult. The pathways towards the higher figure do not diverge as much as might be expected, as indicated through the magenta and cyan bands in the graphic below that was produced by AR6 WGIII.

There is of course a range of possibilities within the hopefully bookended targets of 1.5°C and 2°C tagged by the Paris Agreement, as indicated in the charts and legend above.

Energy Transition:

With national economic engines dependent mostly on fossil fuels, an energy transition (from fossil fuels to green) that supports development and growth imperatives is not yet convincingly feasible financially though efficiencies and cost reductions are demonstrably taking effect.

Between 2010 and 2019, the Energy Intensity of the global economy – energy required for GDP increase – has decreased by 2% per year, an indicator of increasing efficiency in output generation. And for the production of the energy itself, carbon emissions per unit of energy – Carbon Intensity – have decreased, at a rate of 0.3% per year over the same period, indicating a shift towards green energy.

Paris agreement imperatives for Carbon Intensity decrease, however, are rates of 3.5% per year in a 2°C scenario and 7.7% in a 1.5°C scenario.

Fossil Fuels in the Mix:

In any warming scenario within the range stipulated by the Paris Agreement, there may now be no new unabated fossil fuel projects, and existing powerplants and refineries will need to be wound down sooner than the currently determined lifespans that attracted initial investment. Abatement technologies such as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS, also abbreviated CCS) have not received the required priority and investment over past decades to have been developed to a point of feasibility at present.

The report notes: ‘If investments in coal and other fossil infrastructure continue, energy systems will be locked-in to higher emissions, making it harder to limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C (high confidence). Many aspects of the energy system – physical infrastructure; institutions, laws, and regulations; and behavior – are resistant to change or take many years to change.’

It further acknowledges: ‘Limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C will strand fossil-related assets, including fossil infrastructure and unburned fossil fuel resources (high confidence). The economic impacts of stranded assets could amount to trillions of dollars. Coal assets are most vulnerable over the coming decade; oil and gas assets are more vulnerable toward mid-century. CCS can allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing potential stranded assets’.

IPCC modeling does assume in all its scenarios that there will be residual emissions by 2050 that will require abatement either through chemical processes like CCUS, or through ecological methods like reforestation and ecosystem restoration.

Chemical processes are prohibitively expensive currently (for a ton of Carbon, around $600), with no clear indication of their commercial feasibility under present conditions despite hope for exponential advancement. Efficiencies and an accelerating drop in costs of solar energy generation are presented as an example of such advancement, though that has required decades in the making.

Ecological solutions appear low-hanging fruit but pose their own challenges, such as reduction of agricultural land and the need for maintenance of trees, which can themselves become the source of carbon emissions in the case of forest fires in conditions of extreme drought.

Mitigation Options Available:

The report notes with optimism that given the urgent action required, there are options to halve emissions by 2050 in all sectors. It identifies:

Energy sector transitions – renewable energy, alternative fuels, improved energy efficiency;
consumer behavior changes – waste-minimization in consumption, public transport;
smart urban planning – compact cities, transport electrification, zero-carbon buildings;
circular economy, waste-minimization, efficient low-to-zero-carbon processes in production;
smart agriculture, forestry and land use.

The need to integrate urban mitigation and adaptation strategies for cities to address climate change is pressed urgently, with reference to the double threat of rising emissions and more frequent extreme weather events.

Demand side mitigation is emphasized: it can result in emissions reductions of 40-70% compared with that from pledges made by governments prior to 2020. For planners, it offers a paradigm: ‘People demand services and not primary energy and physical resources per se. Focusing on demand for services and the different social and political roles people play broadens the climate solution space.’

Investment Requirements:

Financial flows towards climate change mitigation need to be scaled up 3 to 6 times the current levels by 2030 for even a 2°C scenario. These may target clean energy, efficiency, transport, agriculture and forestation as outlined in the mitigation options listed above.

There is adequate Global capital and liquidity to meet requirements but closing the investment gap will require stronger alignment of public sector finance and policy and clear signaling of support and commitment by governments and international organizations.

The graphic from the report listed below provides in color-coded form the costs of various mitigation options and their impact to net emissions reduction by 2030, scaling up in gigatons. Blue is below current reference cost. Mustard signifies less than $20 per ton. Increasing costs are indicated in darker color bands per the legend at the bottom right of the table.

Key Takeaways:

Raising yet higher the already alarming warnings from earlier reports, this report appears to present the last now or never opportunity before a 1.5°C possibility is gone forever.

It proposes immediate action with much greater financial flows and demand side management, summarized below:

Reduction in fossil fuel use, development of abatement technology for residual emissions;
Carbon removal projects, chemical and ecological;
Socio-cultural and behavioral change, supportive policy;
Clean energy investment.

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Is it really time to let your guard down?

Anika H Ahmed MD — Thu, 10 Mar 2022 14:43:35 +0000

After the Centers of Disease Control announced a mask less policy, based on the number of hospitalizations, vaccination status and prevalence of positive cases, people were overjoyed. Public places opened doors to welcome eager visitors who are out to have fun and put the pandemic behind them. The message read on everyone face is ‘Covid -19 is a thing of the past and it can no longer control our lives’. But how true is it?

I had a chance of being at the Union Station last night in Washington and was horrified to see the majority stepping out of trains with no masks. My main worry is that we are being over enthusiastic and somewhat negligent in letting go of the mask too soon. Yes, according to NBC news data, in every state of the United States the rate of hospitalization has decreased by at least 47% and in many states even as much as 70%. In the past one month, the daily death rates have gone down by more than 43%, coming down from a one-week average of 2,600 per day.

But can we ignore the fact that we are still having 1,500 deaths/day?

We Americans as a nation have seen our death graphs go so sky high over the past two years, with a total death count from Coronavirus being above 950,000, that having 1,500 deaths per day appears minimal. If we step back and look at our numbers from March 2020 to March 2022, the reduction in numbers is encouraging, but still of concern.

The fact that there are still gaps in our health system and primarily in healthcare services in some states, with laboratories not well equipped for testing Coronavirus, especially its new variants, does point towards a need for maintaining caution. Letting go of the masks outdoors is acceptable as long as you are fully vaccinated, can maintain social distance, are not immunocompromised or taking care of an immunocompromised individual, old or young.

Don’t throw away all your masks, have them handy in case you come across people coughing and sneezing. One good thing that the Coronavirus has taught us is taking care of basic hygiene. Everyone is in the habit of washing hands frequently, especially when returning from public spaces, and it has become a habit for the majority. Kids growing up in this pandemic will have good hygiene habits for life.

Word of caution for everyone is: do not let your guard down yet. Carry your hand sanitizer still, with frequent use – remember it kills most of the germs, including Coronavirus, that you pick up from anywhere and get sick because of. Wait, don’t let go of your masks yet!

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Ready to be unmasked? Follow the 3C’s

Anika H Ahmed MD — Tue, 08 Mar 2022 05:30:37 +0000

Spring may come early this year as the announcement of the Centers for Disease Control last week felt like a fresh breath of air. The much-awaited announcement stated that mask wearing could be relaxed indoors for people that are fully immunized. Most of the United States government buildings have withdrawn the requirement of wearing masks indoors and all federal buildings can now be accessed without a mask.

As the temperatures continue to warm up, everyone cannot wait to be outdoors. The chirping birds are a pleasant reminder that spring is around the corner. However, as everyone eases back into pre-Covid normal life, many are still nervous about letting go of their masks, especially parents of young toddlers and children who are still waiting for their Covid-19 vaccination.

The announcement of the Centers for Disease Control regarding the end of indoor mask wearing, did however advise people who are immunocompromised, suffering from a chronic medical condition, or have children that are not fully vaccinated, to still exercise caution. They should continue to wear masks when in closed spaces or in big crowds. For now, those opting to not wear masks must avoid the following 3Cs, which have been tested out in Japan and demonstrate low Coronavirus infection rates:

Crowds: – Avoid being unmasked when hanging out with huge crowds, as seen in concerts, games, or live shows. The bigger the crowd the greater the chance that there may be a large number of people that are still not fully vaccinated and could easily transmit the Coronavirus through droplet infection. Be smart and wear a mask that completely covers your nose and mouth while out having fun with friends in such settings, even if fully vaccinated.

Close contact:- Any time you know you will be having close contact with people that may not be full vaccinated or have young children waiting for their shots, it is best to wear a mask around them.

Closed space:- In closed spaces such as an elevator or an airplane, masks come in handy, keeping one protected while breathing air shared with others in tight, closed spaces.

As the mask requirement has been eased off in many states, in government as well as private sectors, the decision now lies with the people to wear or not to wear a mask. It is true that everyone wants to put the Covid-19 life behind them and move ahead to a normal, restriction-free life, at the earliest possible.

This could be a turning point for Covid-19 as we ease into a less restrictive but still cautious lifestyle and avoid yet another wave of an old or new variant of Coronavirus. We need to be aware of the 950,000 precious lives that have been lost in the United States alone in the last two years.

Keeping in mind the 3C’s above could be the key to avoiding yet another wave of Covid-19!

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Is the Covid-19 Pandemic an Endemic Now? Are we there yet?

Anika H Ahmed MD — Wed, 23 Feb 2022 21:47:26 +0000

Covid-19 has taught us many new things over the past two years, and it has raised public understanding of the difference between an epidemic, pandemic and endemic. When there was a sudden surge of new cases of Covid-19 starting from Wuhan, China in 2020 as a typical Infectious Communicable Disease, we started hearing the word ‘Epidemic’, which is defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as a sudden, unexpected increase in number of cases of a disease in a certain geographical area. An epidemic can be contagious or non-contagious, for example smallpox, polio or obesity, West Nile fever, smoking, etcetera.

The difference in the state of an epidemic and pandemic is not in the severity of the disease but the extent to which it has spread. In a matter of weeks in the spring of 2020, we moved from the stage of ‘Epidemic’ to ‘Pandemic’ as positive cases of Covid-19 went sky high, with increased hospitalizations and the worrisome need for isolation and quarantine of sick people. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) declares a pandemic when the disease’s growth and spread are markedly exponential. Meaning that the number of cases grow at increasing rates each successive day, at times doubling or tripling, following an exponential pattern. A pandemic moves across international boundaries and sweeps across states, countries, and continents, making the health issue global.

Two years later presently, some scientists are optimistic and enthused as the number of hospitalizations and positive cases are going down and they are now using the term ’Endemic’ for Covid-19, encouraging local health bodies and state governments to ease off the non-medical interventions of prevention like wearing masks, maintaining social distance, frequent washing up, and increased medical intervention of vaccination and testing.

By definition ‘Endemic’ is a state when a disease may be consistently present but remains limited to a certain geographical region or season and the pattern of spread is predictable, allowing timely interventions to keep the disease under control. An example is Malaria in certain regions, especially during the monsoon season and summer in hot and humid tropical areas. Endemic does not mean less infectious or less severe cases, but instead, a more predictable and stable spread over time.

As far as Covid-19 is concerned, it has not reached an ‘Endemic’ stage yet but is moving towards it day by day as more and more people are getting vaccinated. The positive cases are going down, which shows that an ‘endemic’ stage may be round the corner now. However, all health professionals and researchers along with many scientists are being conservative still, as they see the transformation of Covid-19 from a pandemic into an endemic, cautioning everyone to maintain safe practices.

Many states across the United States including California, New Jersey, New York, Delaware and Connecticut are easing mask requirements for indoor dining, schools, colleges, and universities. This policy was adopted by Denmark a short while back and it resulted in making Denmark the top country in terms of the largest number of positive cases today. Let us not make the same mistake that Denmark made; let’s learn from it as a cautionary tale, and slowly ease into a pre-Covid way of life.

It is hoped that Omicron was the last big wave of Covid-19 and although there may be more variants, their spread will be well controlled and predictable, qualifying and maintaining the disease at an Endemic’ stage before long!

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One Vaccine may Protect Against all Coronavirus Variants

Anika H Ahmed MD — Mon, 20 Dec 2021 19:14:33 +0000

Good News- New COVID-19 Vaccine may protect against all variants of Coronavirus!

Anika H. Ahmed, MD

The Coronavirus continues to create havoc in everyone’s life across the globe and researchers are today back at the drawing board, trying to figure out one vaccine that may be able to help the immune system defend against all existing and future variants of the Coronavirus. Some good news came out of the University of Virginia where health professionals are working diligently to develop a vaccine that will offer complete coverage. This new vaccine has so far shown promising results in early animal testing in existing variants and may provide protection against all future variants of Coronavirus.

Developments are as follows:

The scientists at University of Virginia and Virginia Tech Health department are working on a new platform, recently invented, to rapidly develop new vaccines. This new platform will offer developing vaccines at very low cost estimated to about a $1 per vaccine, would be easy to store and transport, even in remote areas of the world and could be produced in existing vaccine manufacturing factories around the world. This could be the key to putting an end to the pandemic!

This new vaccine involves making a DNA that can direct the production of a piece of the virus that can instruct the immune system as to how to start a protective antibody response. This DNA is inserted in another small circle of DNA called a plasmid that can multiply within a bacteria. The plasmid is next introduced to E. Coli bacteria, guiding the bacteria to place pieces of proteins on their surfaces. One major break through is the innovation that E. Coli have had a large number of its genes deleted. Deleting these genes that also includes parts of its outer membrane, cause a substantial increase in the response of the immune system to recognize and respond to the vaccine antigen placed on the surface of the bacteria. This entire process from identifying a potential vaccine target to producing the gene-deleted bacteria that do have the vaccine antigens on their surfaces, need a time frame of only two to three weeks, a speed that will make it ideal to controlling the pandemic, with its fast-upcoming various variants now and in the future.

This vaccine is being tried out in pigs and so far, two such vaccines, one designed to protect against Covid-19 and another developed to protect against porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) are being tried out in animals. Both PEDV and the virus that causes Covid-19 are Coronaviruses, but they are not closely related. Like all the Coronaviruses they do share several of the amino acids that form the fusion peptide. PEDV is seen to infect pigs, causing diarrhea, high fever and vomiting, a pig pandemic that has killed about 10% of the US pigs.

Interestingly killed whole-cell vaccines are presently being used widely around the world to cure fatal diseases like Cholera and whopping cough. Factories in many developing and underdeveloped countries are manufacturing million of doses of these vaccines per year, for a low a cost as $1per dose and at times even at much lesser cost. It is a promising possibility to use the technology and innovation to make this new, one vaccine that shall be effective against all the existing and future variants of Coronavirus causing Covid-19.Fingers crossed as more convincing data is collected and human clinical trials begin!

Copyright Anika H. Ahmed, MD, The Stanwork Group

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Laboratories’ Ability to Detect Omicron

Anika H Ahmed MD — Sat, 11 Dec 2021 20:04:11 +0000

Are our laboratories ready to detect the Omicron variant?

Anika H. Ahmed, MD

Scientists are not stopping when it comes to the fight against COVID-19. The first case of the Omicron variant was detected and announced on November 25, out in South Africa and it was detected upon evidence of new sequencing in the COVID-19 samples. Clinicians became suspicious when a large number of patients showed up at clinics with extreme fatigue, exhaustion, headache and generalized body aches. Careful analysis of the samples at the laboratories indicated new mutations and sequencing in the Coronavirus, that was labelled as the Omicron variant.

This is where technology plays a key role in figuring out new variants of the Coronavirus. Correct detection all depends on the way the computer code looks for the differences in the virus compared to the original Wuhan strain. The sequencing is actually exactly the same. A positive specimen for SARS-COV-2 is actually sequenced the exact same way whether it is an Alpha, Delta or an Omicron or any unknown variant, that we may not know. Then a computer algorithm is put in to check and make sure that all the critical mutations for the different variants of Coronavirus are looked into. The outcoming result is reported and identified as a particular variant namely Alpha or Delta or Omicron.

All the identified variants of SARS-COV-2 have unique mutations. It has been observed so far that actually the Alpha variant and the Omicron variant, do have some things in common. They are both more transmissible and hence spread faster. They both have some of the same mutations that may predict more transmissibility, which in plain words means that there are mutations in both Alpha and Omicron variants, that makes the virus attach more tightly and multiply efficiently, thus helping it spread faster and wider. .

To correctly detect the new Omicron variant, all laboratories need to make sure that their computer methods are in place and ready. With all these mutations, it needs to be ensure dthat the current sequencing laboratory techniques work to amplify all of the different regions of the Coronavirus. Most of the laboratories have been working on this aspect and have confirmed that their current sequencing methods would be able to detect and successfully sequence Omicron.

Copyright Anika H. Ahmed, MD, The Stanwork Group

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First U.S. Omicron Case Detected

Anika H Ahmed MD — Wed, 01 Dec 2021 23:25:25 +0000

First Omicron Positive Case Detected in the United States

Anika H. Ahmed, MD

On Wednesday, December 1^st, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases announced at a press briefing at the White House that the first positive case of Omicron variant of the Coronavirus has been detected in California. The positive individual did travel back from South Africa to the United States on Monday, November 22^nd, 2021, and was identified as positive on Monday, November 29^th, 2021, by the University of California in San Francisco, through genomic sequencing. The California and San Francisco Departments of Public Health and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed that the positive Covid-19 was caused by the Omicron variant.

So far, the information on the Omicron positive individual is that the person was fully vaccinated but had not had his booster shot yet. Presently he is suffering ‘mild symptoms’ not requiring hospitalization and is under self-quarantine and isolation. So far, all contacts of the individual have tested negative for Coronavirus and are under observation. The main symptoms of the Omicron variant are extreme fatigue, headache and generalized body aches.

The World Health Organization has identified Omicron variant as a ‘variant of concern’ as it poses a very high global risk. Omicron first identified in South Africa has since been detected in several countries, including now in the United States too. It is being emphasized by researchers and scientists across the globe that the Omicron variant is highly contagious and tends to spread rapidly. The only way to keep oneself protected is firstly to avoid travelling to South Africa, where thousands of people are already positive, practice social distancing in public places, continue to wear a mask and wash hands frequently. In addition to these, both the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control are encouraging everyone to get booster shots to acquire immunity to the new Omicron variant of the Coronavirus.

Health professionals continue to work hard round the clock to collect data, and determine how transmissible is the Omicron variant, which populations are more vulnerable, how severe are the symptoms in most positive cases, and how well do the current available vaccines work. Till the right answers are found, everyone needs to be very cautious and practice preventive measures against the virus. In regard to this, one precautionary step announced by the president of the United States has been restricted travel from South Africa and seven other countries and urging eligible people to get vaccinated against Covid-19 or get a booster shot as soon as possible.

Copyright Anika H. Ahmed, MD, The Stanwork Group

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How Omicron Variant of Covid-19 differs from Alpha & Delta Variants

Anika H Ahmed MD — Tue, 30 Nov 2021 13:15:39 +0000

How is the Omicron Variant different from Alpha & Delta Variants of COVID-19?

Anika H. Ahmed, MD

As family and friends depart for their respective destinations after celebrating Thanksgiving together, and folks hosting Thanksgiving dinners are still finishing their leftovers, they receive news of yet another variant of Coronavirus, namely Omicron, first detected in South Africa. This new variant is fast making waves across the globe leading to new travel restrictions on flights going back and forth from South Africa, in particular. Many countries including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, European Union Countries, Germany, Italy, Israel, Belgium, Hong Kong, Australia, and Pakistan have announced travel restrictions. The United States is presently allowing only fully vaccinated, essential workers and US citizens to board flights coming from South Africa, a strict precautionary measure to prevent Omicron from entering the Unites States. So far, no Omicron has been detected in the United States.

Research continues on the new Omicron variant and scientists are conducting observational studies and collecting data for comparison between the original, Alpha Variant of Covid-19 detected first in the United Kingdom, the deadly Delta variant first detected in India and the now new Omicron variant detected initially in South Africa. Interestingly all three variants present clinically with somewhat different symptoms as following:

Alpha Variant: Patients testing positive for Alpha variant of Coronavirus usually present clinically with symptoms 2-14 days after exposure to the virus and have fever, chills, dyspnea with difficulty in breathing, generalized body aches, fatigue, headache, loss of taste or smell, chest congestion and runny nose, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.
Delta Variant: The most common symptoms of patients testing positive for Delta variant are cold like symptoms namely sore throat, headache, fever, fatigue and loss of taste and smell.
Omicron Variant recently detected in patients presents clinically with extreme fatigue and joint pains. It is also observed that these patients have mild symptoms that subside in a couple of days, with majority complaining of extreme fatigue and exhaustion. It is more dangerous because early evidence on omicron shows that the variant has a large number of mutations, some of which have concerning characteristics — including an increased risk of reinfection compared to other highly transmissible variants. This surely means that people who contracted Covid-19 and recovered could be again subject to catching the Coronavirus again and developing symptoms. This variant also appears to be more infectious leading to a much rapid spread globally.

The good news is that all variants can be detected with available Covid-19 detection tests. Both the rapid antigen and polymerase chain reaction tests will detect the omicron variant. However, the World Health Organization says it poses a “very high” risk due to concerns about transmissibility, immune system evasion and vaccine resistance. Studies have shown that the available Covid-19 vaccines are effective against both the Alpha and Delta variants, but scientists are still conducting studies to see how effective vaccines are against the Omicron variant. The vaccine manufacturers mobilized hundreds of health workers early morning on Thanksgiving holiday, to study Omicron and to keep it under control before it starts a new wave of Covid-19, leading to restricted travelling and socializing, for celebrating the holidays together with friends and family!

Copyright Anika H. Ahmed, MD, The Stanwork Group

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