Haseeb Ahmed, Author at Stanwork https://stanwork.com/author/hahmed/ Digital | ESG | Health Thu, 16 Jun 2022 22:55:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.3 https://stanwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SW-Logo-150x150.png Haseeb Ahmed, Author at Stanwork https://stanwork.com/author/hahmed/ 32 32 Global Energy Emissions, Demand, Mix and Transition towards Sustainability https://stanwork.com/global-energy-emissions-demand-mix-and-transition-towards-sustainability/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=global-energy-emissions-demand-mix-and-transition-towards-sustainability https://stanwork.com/global-energy-emissions-demand-mix-and-transition-towards-sustainability/#respond Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:48:20 +0000 https://stanwork.com/?p=4667 How do we appear positioned at present to meet emissions reduction targets established by the Paris Agreement? In context, considering energy, a main contributor to emissions, topics of relevance: Current global demand for energy Projections for future demand Contours of an Energy transition Energy mix between fossil fuels and renewables View forward: uncertain business models, …

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How do we appear positioned at present to meet emissions reduction targets established by the Paris Agreement? In context, considering energy, a main contributor to emissions, topics of relevance:

                        • Current global demand for energy
                        • Projections for future demand
                        • Contours of an Energy transition
                        • Energy mix between fossil fuels and renewables
                        • View forward: uncertain business models, public sector support.

A concise rendering of current information regarding these topics, in the discussion below.

Global Warming Trajectories across Emissions Scenarios

The desired goal of limiting global warming to A 1.5°C increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels is fast receding as a possibility.

In a positive scenario, of adherence to NetZero commitments made in COP26 by 64 countries representing 89% of global emissions, additional commitments aspired to, and technology improvements expected per current trends, we will end up with a 1.7°C increase instead.

And the trajectory of renewable energy cost decline with current policies leads to a dismal 2.4°C future, well above the upper limit of 2.0°C in the Paris Agreement.

The Role of Energy in Global Emissions

The global energy system that drives our economies and maintains our standards of living is a key factor in all considerations of emissions reduction. A 1.5°C scenario may be possible still, with a greatly accelerated transformation of the Energy sector. From the current state of fossil fuels use, there will need to be greater efficiency and a move towards electrification and new fuels – faster and more extensively than predicated by the present commitments made by governments and corporations. 

 

Demand for Energy

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes in 2021 increased by 6% over 2020,  in a very close correlation with the economic output (GDP) increase of 5.9%, to an all-time high of 36.3 gigatonnes (Gt).

A tonne is a metric ton, 1000 kilograms (kgs)  or 2,205 pounds (lbs). A ‘ton’ can be short (907.2 kgs, equaling 2,000 lbs.), or long (1,016.05 kgs, equaling 2,240 lbs.)

A gigatonne is a billion tonnes. That’s 2.2 trillion pounds. For context: NASA informs us this is the weight of 10,000 fully-loaded U.S. aircraft carriers; the Washington Post tells us this is well over what 100 million African elephants would weigh.

Electricity and heat production accounted for 46% of the increase, with coal, at an all-time high of 15.3 Gt, constituting over 40% of the CO2 emissions growth.

The global increase in electricity and heat sector emissions can almost all be attributed to China, the only major economy experiencing growth in both 2020 and 2021. Electricity demand in China still increased by 10% in 2021 over 2020, outpacing the commensurate economic growth of 8.4%. Just this year-on-year increase was equivalent to the total demand for the entire African continent.

Record high prices for natural gas along with lower operating costs for coal plants across the US and much of Europe also brought about a greater reliance on coal for power generation in 2021.

 

Energy consumption variations

There is wide variance in energy consumption between regions and countries. In 2020 Iceland came in at a per capita demand of around 167,000 kWhrs, the US at 74,000, albeit with a population 1,000 times larger.

The world average was around 20,000 kWhrs. China came in at 28,000, the EU at around 35,000.

The equivalent figure for Somalia, last derived in 2019, is 236 – no zeroes to go with that.

Emissions per capita

Converting CO2 emissions into a per capita basis for an equivalent comparison, China is registered at 8.4 tonnes, the US 14 tonnes, EU 6 tonnes. Somalia is at 0.04 tonnes.

Energy Transition

With national economic engines dependent mostly on fossil fuels, an energy transition (from fossil fuels to green) that supports development and growth imperatives is not yet convincingly feasible financially, though efficiencies and cost reductions are demonstrably taking effect and are expected to improve returns on investment in green energy over time. McKinsey expects that returns on decarbonization technologies and power could outpace the growth in investment by 2035.

The 20% contribution of electricity to the total energy mix now is projected to increase to 40% by 2050. Hydrogen is expected to develop as the new fuel.

The two factors of electrification and new fuels such as Hydrogen should cause a reduction of 40% in fossil fuel use by 2050, compared with 2020.

Between 2010 and 2019, the Energy Intensity of the global economy – energy required for GDP increase – has decreased by 2% per year, an indicator of increasing efficiency in output generation. However, for clean energy transition, the average rate required through 2050 is 3%.

And for the production of the energy itself, carbon emissions per unit of energy – Carbon Intensity – have decreased, at a rate of 0.3% per year over the same period, indicating a shift towards green energy. Paris agreement imperatives for Carbon Intensity decrease, however, are rates of 3.5% per year in a  2°C scenario and 7.7% in a 1.5°C scenario.

Demand for energy will continue to increase but at a lower rate, despite an increase of 2 billion in the world population and rapid, exponential growth in the global economy by 2100.

Continuing reductions in the energy intensity of production and greater efficiency in industry, buildings and transport will be the offsetting factors.

Fossil Fuels in the Energy Mix

In any warming scenario within the range stipulated by the Paris Agreement, there may now be no new unabated fossil fuel projects, and existing powerplants and refineries will need to be wound down sooner than the currently determined lifespans that attracted initial investment.

Abatement technologies such as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS, also abbreviated CCS) have not received the required priority and investment over past decades to have been developed to a point of feasibility at present.

Per the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), If investments in coal and other fossil infrastructure continue, energy systems will be locked-in to higher emissions, making it harder to limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. Many aspects of the energy system – physical infrastructure; institutions, laws, and regulations; and behavior  – are resistant to change or take many years to change.’

Limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C will also cause stranded fossil-related assets, including fossil infrastructure and unburned fossil fuel resources. The economic impacts of stranded assets could amount to trillions of dollars.

Coal assets are most vulnerable over the coming decade; oil and gas assets are more vulnerable toward mid-century. Coal demand has already peaked, while oil demand will peak in the next two to five years. Gas demand is expected to continue through about 2035.

CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing potential stranded assets.

Fossil fuel emissions abatement

In all its scenarios that there will be residual emissions by 2050  that will require abatement either through chemical processes like CCUS or through ecological methods like reforestation and ecosystem restoration.

Chemical processes are prohibitively expensive currently (for a ton of Carbon, around $600), with no clear indication of their commercial feasibility under present conditions despite hope for exponential advancement. Ecological solutions appear low-hanging fruit but pose their own challenges, such as reduction of agricultural land and the need for maintenance of trees, which can themselves become the source of carbon emissions in the case of forest fires in conditions of extreme drought.

Quick View Forward: Business Models in a Decarbonized Economy

There will be uncertainty across economic sectors. Besides massive investment and public demand side management through catalyzation and incentives, respectively, governments will have to join business and society for the use of policy to affect adjustments in market design.

© Haseeb Ahmed, The Stanwork Group

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Momentous SEC Climate Reporting Rules proposed: to take effect beginning with Filings in 2024 https://stanwork.com/momentous-sec-climate-reporting-rules-proposed-to-take-effect-beginning-with-filings-in-2024/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=momentous-sec-climate-reporting-rules-proposed-to-take-effect-beginning-with-filings-in-2024 https://stanwork.com/momentous-sec-climate-reporting-rules-proposed-to-take-effect-beginning-with-filings-in-2024/#respond Thu, 05 May 2022 20:08:10 +0000 https://stanwork.com/?p=4598 On March 21 this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed rule changes requiring registrants to include material climate-related disclosures in their registration documents and periodic filings. The comment period for the proposed rules ends May 20, 2022, after which it will likely take the rest of the year before the SEC finalizes the …

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On March 21 this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed rule changes requiring registrants to include material climate-related disclosures in their registration documents and periodic filings. The comment period for the proposed rules ends May 20, 2022, after which it will likely take the rest of the year before the SEC finalizes the rules. If finalized by Dec 31, 2022, the rules are expected to apply to filings for FY 2023 beginning in 2024 according to a schedule determined by the registrant’s category.

The rules apply to all SEC registrants except registered investment companies, asset-based issuers and Canadian issuers filing under the Multi-Jurisdictional Disclosure System (MJDS).

This will have a profound impact on large emitters, as oil and gas, energy, industrial, construction, transportation and even agriculture may be categorized; it may be noted that these presently constitute the heart of global economic growth engines.

 

Context and Background:

The disclosures are intended to allow investors to make informed decisions regarding investment in companies with an account of their climate risk, the material business impact therein, and their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Following the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s regulation of emissions under the Clean Air Act in 2009, the SEC had issued guidance in 2010 requiring large emitters (25,000 tons or more) of GHG emissions to collect and report data regarding their emissions annually. The proposed rules in 2022 raise the requirements several notches up from previous guidance to detailed mandatory requirements broadening the scope of reporting.

 

Broad Disclosure Requirements:

Registrants would provide detailed information about their management of climate change issues, including climate-related governance, strategy, risk management and metrics, and goals. These respective areas conform to the familiar four pillars outlined by the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) convened by the Financial Stability Board, upon which, along with measurement and reporting of GHG emissions in accordance with the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, the proposed requirements are mostly based.

Whereas TCFD addresses climate-related opportunities also, the SEC rules address climate risk only. Although its eleven recommended disclosure topics organized into the four reporting pillars present a voluntary framework, several international jurisdictions are codifying aspects of it.

Following GHG Protocol, emissions of seven gases covered by the Kyoto Agreement will be reported upon: Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, Nitrogen Trifluoride, and Sulphur Hexafluoride.

 

Paralleling International Sustainability Reporting Standards:

 

The European Union has maintained a more forward stance on sustainability and climate-related disclosures preceding the recent SEC rules proposal. In April 2021 the European Commission issued the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) introducing mandated EU sustainability standards, to be prepared by the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) and adopted through secondary legislation. The first set of standards is due for adoption by 31 October, 2022 for applicability in FY 2023; the second set of standards will apply in FY 2024.

The directive will apply to all listed companies, and to all large companies meeting at least 2 out of 3 criteria: 250 employees, and/or over €40M turnover, and/or over €20M in total assets.

The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Foundation had announced at the COP26 in November 2021 the formation of the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), unifying and consolidating multiple reporting frameworks  for global standardization of sustainability reporting. A working group of the ISSB floated draft reporting requirements compatible with the Paris Agreement on March 31, 2022, that international institutional investors will be seeking compliance with.

Among the countries incorporating TCFD recommendations into legislation or regulation are Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UK, discussed below.

Regulation Precedent Set by the UK

The proposed regulations are preceded in action by the United Kingdom, the first country in the G-20 following TCFD recommendations to regulate its requirements into law. As of April 6, 2022, over 1,300 of the largest UK-registered companies and financial institutions will need to disclose climate-related financial information.

This will include many of the UK’s largest traded companies, banks and insurers, as well as private companies with over 500 employees and £500 million in turnover.

 

SEC Reporting Thresholds – Registrant Categories:

The SEC categorizes registrants by size, which determines rules applicability, as follows:

StatusPublic FloatAnnual Revenues
Smaller Reporting Company and Non-Accelerated FilerLess than $75 millionN/A
$75 million to less than $700 millionLess than $100 million
Smaller Reporting Company and Accelerated Filer$75 million to less than $250 million$100 million or more
Accelerated Filer (not a Smaller Reporting Company)$250 million to less than $700 million$100 million or more
Large Accelerated Filer (not a Smaller Reporting Company)$700 million or moreN/A

 

New Rules Implementation Timelines:

If the rules get implemented by December 31, 2022, as planned, reporting requirements will take effect in a phased manner by category, as listed in the table below:

Registrant CategoryEffective Implementation Date
Large Accelerated FilerFY 2023 reported in 2024
Accelerated FilerFY 2024 reported in 2025
Non-Accelerated FilerFY 2024 reported in 2025
Smaller Reporting CompanyFY 2025 reported in 2026

For Scope 3 emissions specifically, there will be an additional year for each category, except in the case of smaller reporting entities, which shall remain exempt from this reporting requirement:

Registrant CategoryEffective Implementation Date
Large Accelerated FilerFY 2024 reported in 2025
Accelerated FilerFY 2025 reported in 2026
Non-Accelerated FilerFY 2025 reported in 2026
Smaller Reporting CompanyNo reporting requirement

 

Reporting Requirements:

 

The SEC will require emissions and climate-related management reporting on the behalf of registrants in initial registration (forms 10, S-1, S-11, S-4, and for foreign registrants, forms F-1 and F-4) as well as the annual 10-K (and 20-F for foreign issuers), and quarterly/periodic 10-Q (6-K for foreign issuers) interim reports.

All disclosures would be filed rather than furnished. These would hence be subject to disclosure controls and procedures, including liability, except for certain safe harbors.

Both narrative and quantitative disclosures will be tagged in Inline Extensible Business Reporting Language (IXBRL).

Financial Statements

Per proposed changes to regulation S-X, quantitative factors, the reporting will cover with specified metrics and disclosures the impact of climate-related events on the line items of a registrant’s consolidated financial statements.

The proposed disclosures would address three categories:

  • Financial impact metrics
  • Expenditure metrics (separately aggregated for capitalized costs)
  • Financial estimates and assumptions

Current and potential material impacts of identified climate events on business and consolidated financial statements over the short, medium and long terms will all be presented.

All disclosures would be subject to audit as part of the financial statement assurance process and within scope of the registrant’s internal control of financial reporting.

Separate Section Disclosures

The reporting will cover GHG emissions and other disclosures in a separate and appropriately captioned section, per regulation S-K mandating qualitative disclosures:

  • Description of Business – Item 101.
  • Legal proceedings – Item 103.
  • Risk Factors – Item 105.
  • Management’s Discussion – Item 303.

The information set for disclosures would include:

  • Processes for identifying climate-related physical and transition risks.
  • Governance of the climate-related risk management function.
  • Integration of climate risk into the registrant’s overall risk management function.
  • Current and potential effects of identified climate events on strategy, business model and outlook.
  • If scenario analysis used, description of scenarios including parameters, assumptions, analysis and projections.
  • Metrics and targets used to identify and manage risks in transition plan, if adopted.
  • Internal carbon price used, how it is set.
  • Climate-related targets, goals and transition plan, if publicly set:
    • Scope of activities and emissions, timelines
    • How targets are intended to be met
    • Relevant data on progress against goals, how achieved – updates each year
    • Amount of Carbon reduction by any offsets used; amount of renewable energy generated for any Renewable Energy Certificates used.

 

Materiality Standards:

 

The standard for materiality of information remains a substantial likelihood that an investor will deem the information important in making an investment decision. There is a negative standard also to be considered, in that if disclosures are omitted, it would significantly change the mix of reporting relevant to the investment decision.

Whereas the standard in Europe has enveloped company-induced impacts occurring external to the company, the SEC has rejected the European double-materiality standard and stayed with impacts upon the registrant itself.

There are bright-line materiality thresholds for metrics. For the financial impacts and expenditure disclosures around financial statements, a 1% threshold is established for materiality. If the aggregate impact of the disclosures relating to any line item exceeds 1% of the total for that line item, disclosure will be deemed material and required.

The SEC has emphasized the dynamic nature of materiality assessments. Because circumstances will shift and vary, a requirement is placed for disclosures for the short, medium and long term.

 

Emissions Reporting Requirements by Scope:

 

Whereas the SEC’s previous guidance of 2010 required larger emitters – 25,000 metric tons or more of CO 2 equivalent emitted annually – to report facility-specific emissions as mandated by the EPA, the proposed rules will require emissions information, disaggregated as well as in the aggregate at registrant entity level.

  • Scope 1 (direct) and 2 (indirect) GHG emissions metrics separately disclosed, in absolute and intensity terms, aggregated as well as disaggregated by constituent GHG.
  • Scope 3 GHG emissions (scope 2 emissions occurring upstream or downstream of the registrant’s value chain), if material or if target or goal set, in absolute and intensity terms without offsets.

 

Assurance Requirements:

 

Attestation by a third-party that meets standards of experience, expertise and independence will be required for certain larger registrants. The attestation level will increase over time from that of Limited Assurance, as currently required for 10-Q financial reports, to Reasonable Assurance as required for 10-K financial report filings.

Assuming rules implementation by December 31, 2022:

Registrant CategoryLimited AssuranceReasonable Assurance
Large Accelerated FilerFiscal 2024 filed in 2025Fiscal 2026 filed in 2027
Accelerated FilerFiscal 2025 filed in 2026Fiscal 2027 filed in 2028

 

Liability Safe Harbor:

Disclosure of Scope 3 emissions through the registrant’s value chain will require reliance on information provided by third parties. While there is no broad liability safe harbor, a proposed targeted safe harbor would deem such disclosures not fraudulent unless made or affirmed without a reasonable basis or disclosed in other than good faith.

 

Influences over Final Rules Determination:

 

The SEC has floated the rules as a draft, establishing a baseline and soliciting comments. The rules are impactful and have proponents as well as detractors.

Challenges

Even the SEC did not have unanimous consent among its commissioners regarding the rules proposed, and there may be changes of commissioners within the SEC before the final rules are issued.

Several members of congress have expressed their opposition to the rules already.

There is the potential for court challenges also, possibly on the basis of:

  • The SEC’s authority,
  • a potential violation of first amendment restrictions against compelled speech,
  • economic cost-benefit considerations.

There may accordingly be expected a softening from aspects of the draft rules in the final set of rules.

Support

But with stakeholder activism regarding climate change and corporate disclosures, there is strong investor pressure towards structured and mandatory corporate sustainability disclosures, particularly climate change. Investors may go beyond even the proposed SEC reporting  requirements, in both the content and the timelines of information disclosure. That does appear to be an accelerating trend as alarm regarding deviation from Paris Agreement goals rises. Large institutional investors have been adjusting their investment portfolios in conformance with Environmental Social and Governance considerations for years already, beyond regulatory requirements.

Multiple regulatory authorities and legislative entities may also establish their own requirements regarding aspects of climate impact disclosure that businesses will have to adhere to outside of the SEC’s requirements.

  • In November 2021 the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) issued guidance for insurers regarding climate change risk management.
  • A bill passed by the California senate in January 2022 and now with the house would require all businesses with over $1 billion in revenue operating in the state to disclose all emissions data, including scope 3, to the California Secretary of State’s office beginning January 2024.
  • The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) floated draft principles for climate-related financial disclosures for large financial institutions in March 2022.

 

Next for Registrants:

 

The comment period for the proposed rules will close on May 20, 2022. Registrants may compare the proposed disclosure requirements with their current disclosures, identify gaps, and analyze operational requirements for compliance. 

Comments may then be provided to the SEC by registrants until the close date.

Whatever the shape of the final SEC rules, it is clear that there will be a requirement for more robust and structured reporting on climate change influenced by multiple stakeholder and governance groups on all business entities. Organizations need to dedicate appropriate resources accordingly.

© Haseeb Ahmed, The Stanwork Group

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Now or Never: AR6 WG III Report by IPCC on Climate Change Mitigation https://stanwork.com/now-or-never-ar6-wg-iii-report-by-ipcc-climate-change/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=now-or-never-ar6-wg-iii-report-by-ipcc-climate-change https://stanwork.com/now-or-never-ar6-wg-iii-report-by-ipcc-climate-change/#respond Fri, 15 Apr 2022 23:21:20 +0000 https://stanwork.com/?p=4493 The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) released on April 4, 2022 calls for fast action to stabilize the climate, listing a broad range of opportunities enabling compliance with the commitments made in the 2015 Paris agreement. Each successive assessment report from the IPCC since the first one in 1990 has …

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The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) released on April 4, 2022 calls for fast action to stabilize the climate, listing a broad range of opportunities enabling compliance with the commitments made in the 2015 Paris agreement.

Each successive assessment report from the IPCC since the first one in 1990 has conveyed ever-increasing alarm. This third installment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) notes the possibility of a 1.5°C scenario receding rapidly but possible with immediate action. Barring such urgent action, by the next Conference of Parties COP27 in Egypt in December, a 1.5°C possibility will be beyond reach.

Per UN chief Antonio Guterres, the report is “a litany of
broken promises… a file of shame cataloguing empty promises”. Going further, he
states “We are on a fast track to climate disaster.… This
is not fiction or exaggeration, it is what science tells us will result from
our current energy policies.”

Among the disaster scenarios: “major
cities under water, unprecedented heat waves, terrifying storms, widespread
water shortages, the extinction of a million species of plants and animals.”

Background – AR6 Working Groups:

This report comes from working group three (WG III) of AR6.  

Topics covered in AR6 by respective groups are:

  • WG I:   The Physical Science Basis – report released in August 2021.
  • WG III: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – February 2022.
  • WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change – April 2022.

Focus of AR6 WG III:

The IPCC AR6 WG III report addresses carbon mitigation pathways discussed in earlier IPCC reports and emphasizes two additional pathways: carbon removal and industrial decarbonization.

The report brings demand side mitigation into primary focus. Along with behavioral and lifestyle changes for consumers, advice to planners also, to frame public service in the context of demand rather than supply (methods of fulfilment). Decent Living Standards can be achieved with lower energy expenditure than previously thought.

With the observation that ‘An increasing share of emissions can be attributed to urban areas’, buildings receive special attention in the report, assessed under the SER framework (Sufficiency, Efficiency, Renewable).

The report also emphasizes the need for much greater investment along with technological innovation in climate solutions.

Positive trends:

IPCC notes movement towards goals over the past decade, which has seen:

  • A drop of 85% in the cost of solar energy, 55% in wind power;
  • electric vehicles market growing a hundred-fold;
  • over 20% of Carbon emissions subject to carbon taxes or trading schemes;
  • over 50 counties legislated emissions-reducing climate laws;
  • 24 countries having reduced emissions consistently;
  • climate targets covering emissions rising from 49% to around 90% globally;
  • emissions growth rate declining to 1.3% per year, from 2.1% in previous decade.

Challenges:

Though the rate of increase declined, in absolute terms the global total for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) over the last decade increased to an average of a record 56 billion tons per year.

The total carbon budget remaining for the rest of the century, compliant with a 1.5°C goal, is greatly depleted already and will certainly be overshot in the absence of unforeseen technological innovations or socioeconomic/behavioral shifts.

Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – country level pledges – are grossly inadequate to meet the 1.5°C goal and minimally supportive of a reasonable shot at 2°C.

There are large investment gaps (project finance) and implementation gaps (rapid deployment).

Retaining a 1.5°C target:

Despite it appearing improbable, the goal of 1.5°C retains urgency because the upper limit of 2°C agreed upon in the Paris accords was reported in a subsequent IPCC report in 2018 to cause unacceptably greater impact. Among ecosystem damage differences between the top and bottom of the range, by 2100:

  • Global sea level rise 10 cm lower;
  • Arctic Ocean ice-free in summer once per century compared with at least once per decade;
  • Coral reef decline of 70-90 percent, opposed to more than 99 percent.

The measures needed to contain the warming at 1.5°C have stringency and a requirement of immediacy rendering its overshoot likely. See below.

Requirements for the 1.5°C target:

The IPCC established for a 1.5°C target an emissions limit of 500 billion additional tons of Carbon Dioxide (CO2, contributing most of the Carbon to the atmosphere) between 2020 and 2100, a period of eight decades. At the current remaining balance of 400 billion tons and current emissions rates, this limit is reached within the decade rather than by the end of the century.

Other requirements include a reduction of fossil fuel usage from 2019 levels, by 2050: Coal 95%, Oil 60%, Gas 45%. Global emissions must peak before 2025 and fall by 43 percent from 2019 levels by 2030.

2°C Scenarios:

The focus remains on 1.5°C as a target, even with likely overshoot, also because settling upon a 2°C target does not make the challenge significantly less difficult. The pathways towards the higher figure do not diverge as much as might be expected, as indicated through the magenta and cyan bands in the graphic below that was produced by AR6 WGIII.

There is of course a range of possibilities within the hopefully bookended targets of 1.5°C and 2°C tagged by the Paris Agreement, as indicated in the charts and legend above.

Energy Transition:

With national economic engines dependent mostly on fossil fuels, an energy transition (from fossil fuels to green) that supports development and growth imperatives is not yet convincingly feasible financially though efficiencies and cost reductions are demonstrably taking effect.

Between 2010 and 2019, the Energy Intensity of the global economy – energy required for GDP increase – has decreased by 2% per year, an indicator of increasing efficiency in output generation. And for the production of the energy itself, carbon emissions per unit of energy – Carbon Intensity – have decreased, at a rate of 0.3% per year over the same period, indicating a shift towards green energy.

Paris agreement imperatives for Carbon Intensity decrease, however, are rates of 3.5% per year in a  2°C scenario and 7.7% in a 1.5°C scenario.

Fossil Fuels in the Mix:

In any warming scenario within the range stipulated by the Paris Agreement, there may now be no new unabated fossil fuel projects, and existing powerplants and refineries will need to be wound down sooner than the currently determined lifespans that attracted initial investment. Abatement technologies such as Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS, also abbreviated CCS) have not received the required priority and investment over past decades to have been developed to a point of feasibility at present.

The report notes: ‘If investments in coal and other fossil infrastructure continue, energy systems will be locked-in to higher emissions, making it harder to limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C (high confidence). Many aspects of the energy system – physical infrastructure; institutions, laws, and regulations; and behavior  – are resistant to change or take many years to change.’

It further acknowledges: ‘Limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C will strand fossil-related assets, including fossil infrastructure and unburned fossil fuel resources (high confidence). The economic impacts of stranded assets could amount to trillions of dollars. Coal assets are most vulnerable over the coming decade; oil and gas assets are more vulnerable toward mid-century. CCS can allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing potential stranded assets’.

IPCC modeling does assume in all its scenarios that there will be residual emissions by 2050  that will require abatement either through chemical processes like CCUS, or through ecological methods like reforestation and ecosystem restoration.

Chemical processes are prohibitively expensive currently (for a ton of Carbon, around $600), with no clear indication of their commercial feasibility under present conditions despite hope for exponential advancement. Efficiencies and an accelerating drop in costs of solar energy generation are presented as an example of such advancement, though that has required decades in the making.

Ecological solutions appear low-hanging fruit but pose their own challenges, such as reduction of agricultural land and the need for maintenance of trees, which can themselves become the source of carbon emissions in the case of forest fires in conditions of extreme drought.

Mitigation Options Available:

The report notes with optimism that given the urgent action required, there are options to halve emissions by 2050 in all sectors. It identifies:

  • Energy sector transitions – renewable energy, alternative fuels, improved energy efficiency;
  • consumer behavior changes – waste-minimization in consumption, public transport;
  • smart urban planning – compact cities, transport electrification, zero-carbon buildings;
  • circular economy, waste-minimization, efficient low-to-zero-carbon processes in production;
  • smart agriculture, forestry and land use.

The need to integrate urban mitigation and adaptation strategies for cities to address climate change is pressed urgently, with reference to the double threat of rising emissions and more frequent extreme weather events.

Demand side mitigation is emphasized: it can result in emissions reductions of 40-70% compared with that from pledges made by governments prior to 2020. For planners, it offers a paradigm: ‘People demand services and not primary energy and physical resources per se. Focusing on demand for services and the different social and political roles people play broadens the climate solution space.’

Investment Requirements:

Financial flows towards climate change mitigation need to be scaled up 3 to 6 times the current levels by 2030 for even a 2°C scenario. These may target clean energy, efficiency, transport, agriculture and forestation as outlined in the mitigation options listed above.

There is adequate Global capital and liquidity to meet requirements but closing the investment gap will require stronger alignment of public sector finance and policy and clear signaling of support and commitment by governments and international organizations.

The graphic from the report listed below provides in color-coded form the costs of various mitigation options and their impact to net emissions reduction by 2030, scaling up in gigatons. Blue is below current reference cost. Mustard signifies less than $20 per ton. Increasing costs are indicated in darker color bands per the legend at the bottom right of the table.

Key Takeaways:

Raising yet higher the already alarming warnings from earlier reports,  this report appears to present the last now or never opportunity before a 1.5°C possibility is gone forever.

It proposes immediate action with much greater financial flows and demand side management, summarized below:

  • Reduction in fossil fuel use, development of abatement technology for residual emissions;
  • Carbon removal projects, chemical and ecological;
  • Socio-cultural and behavioral change, supportive policy;
  • Clean energy investment.

© Haseeb Ahmed, The Stanwork Group

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